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Market timing by global fund managers

机译：全球基金经理的市场时机

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We analyze the market timing ability of US global equity fund managers in the late 1980s and early 1990s, before hedge funds became prominent in global investing. We examine both portfolio weights and returns to distinguish between world market timing (movements of funds between all equity markets and cash) and national market timing (movements out of one country's equity market into one or more other countries' equities). We find no evidence of world market timing, but do find evidence of national market timing. Earlier papers examining multi-country fund management find very little evidence of market timing ability, but they do not explicitly consider the difference in world and national timing. Our results suggest that it may be important to capture the distinction between the two types of global timing activity. Our methodology and results may also be pertinent to domestic papers that examine simultaneous movements between asset classes and cash.
机译：在对冲基金在全球投资中占主导地位之前，我们分析了1980年代末和1990年代初美国全球股票基金经理的市场定时能力。我们同时检查投资组合的权重和收益，以区分世界市场时机（所有股票市场和现金之间的资金动向）和国家市场时机（从一个国家的股票市场转移到一个或多个其他国家的股票中）。我们找不到世界市场时机的证据，但确实找到了国家市场时机的证据。较早的研究跨国基金管理的论文很少发现市场时机能力的证据，但是他们没有明确考虑世界时机和国家时机的差异。我们的结果表明，捕捉两种全球定时活动之间的区别可能很重要。我们的方法和结果也可能与研究资产类别和现金之间同时变动的国内论文有关。

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