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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of oceanography >Inter-model variability of projected sea level changes in the western North Pacific in CMIP3 coupled climate models
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Inter-model variability of projected sea level changes in the western North Pacific in CMIP3 coupled climate models

机译：CMIP3耦合气候模型中北太平洋西部预计海平面变化的模型间变异性

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We investigate sea level changes in the western North Pacific for twenty-first century climate projections by analyzing the output from 15 coupled models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Projected changes in the wind stress due to those in sea level pressure (SLP) result in the projected sea level changes. In the western North Pacific (30-50°N, 145- 170°E), the inter-model standard deviation of the sea level change relative to the global mean is comparable to that based on the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean. Whereas a positive SLP change in the eastern North Pacific (40-50°N, 170-150°W) induces a large northward shift of the Kuroshio Extension (KE), a negative SLP change in this region induces a strong intensification of the KE. Large inter-model variability of the SLP projection in the eastern North Pacific causes a large uncertainty of the sea level projection in the western North Pacific. Models with a larger northward shift (intensification) of the KE exhibit a poleward shift (an intensification) of the Aleutian Low (AL) larger than that for the MME mean. However, models that exhibit a larger intensification of the AL do not necessarily show a larger intensification of the KE. Our analysis suggests that the SLP change that induces an intensification of the KE is associated with a teleconnection from the equatorial Pacific, and that the SLP change that induces a northward shift of the KE is characterized by a zonal mean change.
机译：我们通过分析参与耦合模型比较项目第3阶段（CMIP3）的15个耦合模型的输出，研究了二十一世纪气候预测的北太平洋西部海平面变化。由海平面压力（SLP）引起的风应力预计变化将导致预计海平面变化。在北太平洋西部（北纬30-50°，东经145-170°），海平面变化相对于全球平均水平的模型间标准偏差可与基于多模型总体（MME）平均值的模型间标准偏差相媲美。 。北太平洋东部（40-50°N，170-150°W）的SLP呈正变化会引起黑潮延伸（KE）的北移，而该区域的SLP呈负变化会引起KE的强烈集约化。在北太平洋东部，SLP投影的模型间较大变异性导致在北太平洋西部的海平面投影具有很大的不确定性。 KE的北移（增强）较大的模型显示的阿留申低压（AL）的极移（增强）大于MME平均值的极移。但是，AL表现出更大强度的模型并不一定显示KE表现出更大的强度。我们的分析表明，引起KE增强的SLP变化与来自赤道太平洋的遥相关，而引起KE向北移动的SLP变化以纬向平均变化为特征。

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