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Planning for the optimal mix of paygo tax and funded savings

机译:规划有效税和资金储蓄的最佳组合

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We analyze the optimal balance between social security taxation and private saving in the provision of retirement income in dynamically efficient economies, a question at the center of policy debates in Europe and the United States. We consider the relative importance for this question of the return to capital, the internal return of the pay-as-you-go system, and the variabilities and correlation (or independence) of labor earnings and the capital return. We analyse these influences theoretically in the context of a two-period, overlapping generations model with uncertainty. We use a new method to calibrate the model using annual data on GDP per worker and the total real return on equities, from 1950 to 2002, from which we infer the stochastic characteristics of lifetime labor income and the return to lifetime savings in the US, UK, France and Japan. We obtain a range of optimal, steady-state values of the social security tax and the rate of lifetime savings. When the relative rate of risk aversion is assumed to be 2.5, the computed optimal tax varies from 5% in the United States to 22% in Japan. France is similar to Japan, and the UK is in between.
机译:我们分析了在动态高效经济中提供退休收入时社会保障税与私人储蓄之间的最佳平衡,这是欧美政策辩论的中心问题。对于资本回报率,现收现付制的内部收益以及劳动收入和资本收益的变化性和相关性(或独立性),我们认为相对重要性。我们在具有不确定性的两周期重叠世代模型的背景下,从理论上分析了这些影响。我们使用一种新的方法来校准该模型,该模型使用了从1950年到2002年的每名工人的GDP和实际总股本回报率的年度数据,由此可以推断出美国终身劳动收入和终身储蓄回报的随机特征,英国,法国和日本。我们获得了社会保障税和终身储蓄率的一系列最佳,稳态值。假设相对风险规避率为2.5,则计算出的最佳税率从美国的5%到日本的22%不等。法国类似于日本,英国介于两者之间。

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