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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of policy modeling >Protectionism, how stupid is this? The causal effect of free trade for the world's poorest countries: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in Switzerland
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Protectionism, how stupid is this? The causal effect of free trade for the world's poorest countries: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in Switzerland

机译：保护主义，这有多愚蠢？自由贸易对世界上最贫穷国家的因果效应：来自瑞士的准实验的证据

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摘要

Against the background of a possible revival of protectionism, we study a quasi-experimental situation in Switzerland to estimate the causal effect of free market access on agro-food exports of least-developed countries. We show that due to this setup our study is not suffering from selection and attrition issues plaguing existing studies. To estimate the causal effect of a unilateral trade liberalization we implement a difference in -differences model based on synthetic control methods. We find that on average agro-food exports of least-developed countries to Switzerland were about 80% higher due to the introduction of free market access. In other words, if Switzerland had followed the path of protectionism, least-developed countries' agro-food exports would have been almost half of what they are under free trade. (C) 2017 The Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译：在保护主义可能复苏的背景下，我们研究了瑞士的准实验情况，以估计自由市场准入对最不发达国家农产品出口的因果关系。我们表明，由于这种设置，我们的研究没有遭受困扰现有研究的选择和损耗问题。为了估算单边贸易自由化的因果关系，我们基于综合控制方法实施了差异模型。我们发现，由于引入了自由市场准入，最不发达国家对瑞士的农产品出口平均提高了约80％。换句话说，如果瑞士走贸易保护主义的道路，那么最不发达国家的农产品出口将几乎是其自由贸易额的一半。 （C）2017年政策建模学会。由Elsevier Inc.出版。保留所有权利。

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