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Intergenerational Conflict: Evidence from Europe

机译：代际冲突：来自欧洲的证据

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摘要

The anticipated, dramatic shift in the demographics of European societies over the next half a century begs many questions about the state of relations between generations. Papers and speculations portraying a world in which the elderly rule through parliamentary majorities, preventing reductions in pensions and ‘enslaving’ the working population are surprisingly common. Existing literature on these hypotheses focus on the policy preference differences between the young and the old with evidence mixed as to the accuracy of these predictions. This paper aims to build on this debate by looking at the effects that the dependency ratio has on intergenerational relations. By using a multilevel methodology and data from the 2008 European Social Survey, the effect of demographic structure can be observed on the individual level. Yet whilst evidence is found of decreasing legitimacy of welfare for the elderly, this paper argues that this does not point to increasing intergenerational conflict in Europe.
机译：在接下来的半个世纪中，欧洲社会人口的预期的，巨大的变化引起了关于代际关系状况的许多问题。令人惊讶的是，各种文件和推测描绘了一个这样的世界，在这个世界中，老年人通过议会多数统治，防止养老金减少和“奴役”劳动人口的现象非常普遍。关于这些假设的现有文献集中在年轻人和老年人之间的政策偏好差异上，并有关于这些预测准确性的证据。本文旨在通过研究抚养比对代际关系的影响来建立这一辩论。通过使用多层次的方法和2008年欧洲社会调查的数据，可以观察到人口结构对个人的影响。然而，尽管有证据表明老年人福利合法性下降，但本文认为这并不意味着欧洲代际冲突的加剧。

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