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A Study of the Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles:An Agent-Based Modeling Approach*

机译：替代燃料汽车的扩散研究：基于Agent的建模方法*

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摘要

This paper demonstrates the use of an agent-based model (ABM) to investigate factors that can speed the diffusion of eco-innovations, namely alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). The ABM provides the opportunity to consider the interdependencies inherent between key participants in the automotive industry: manufacturers, consumers, and governmental agencies. Agent-based models allow for tackling these interdependencies in a very elegant way. Because ABMs allow convenient modeling of the interactions between multiple agents, each with unique optimization goals, it provides a method for understanding consumer and manufacturer response to diverse environmental changes. Grounding the agent-based model on empirical data further improves the validity of the model results. We use choice-based conjoint data of more than 7,000 respondents to elicit heterogeneous consumer preferences. Further, information about manufacturers' cost structure is available from an established vehicle design tool, A VCEM. In three experiments, mechanisms are considered for speeding the adoption of AFVs: technology push, market pull, and regulatory push. Simulation results support the idea that technology push can be an important mechanism for speeding the diffusion of AFVs. Market pull, that is, word of mouth, also has a positive impact on the diffusion of AFVs and increases the social good by decreasing the preference for fuel-inefficient vehicles. Furthermore, word of mouth leads to a higher willingness to pay for AFVs, which indicates that the perceived value of AFVs increases with word of mouth. In contrast, a governmental push that focuses on the manufacturers (fuel economy mandates) leads to a decrease in the social good (air pollution improvement) because market share for fuel-inefficient vehicles increases. This article provides insights into how to set up an ABM to evaluate factors that influence the diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles. These insights can be applied to other types of eco-innovations.
机译：本文演示了使用基于主体的模型（ABM）来研究可加速生态创新扩散的因素，即替代燃料汽车（AFV）。 ABM提供了一个机会来考虑汽车行业主要参与者（制造商，消费者和政府机构）之间固有的相互依存关系。基于代理的模型允许以非常优雅的方式解决这些相互依赖性。由于ABM可以方便地建模多个代理之间的交互，每个代理都有独特的优化目标，因此它提供了一种了解消费者和制造商对各种环境变化的响应的方法。将基于代理的模型基于经验数据进一步提高了模型结果的有效性。我们使用超过7,000名受访者的基于选择的联合数据来得出不同的消费者偏好。此外，可从已建立的车辆设计工具A VCEM获得有关制造商成本结构的信息。在三个实验中，考虑了加速AFV采纳的机制：技术推动，市场推动和监管推动。仿真结果支持以下观点：技术推动可以成为加快AFV扩散的重要机制。市场拉动，也就是口口相传，也对AFV的扩散产生积极影响，并通过降低对低耗油量车辆的偏好来增加社会福利。此外，口口相传会导致人们为AFV支付更高的意愿，这表明AFV的感知价值随口碑而增加。相比之下，政府侧重于制造商（燃油经济性规定）的推动会导致社会福利下降（空气污染改善），因为低油耗车辆的市场份额增加了。本文提供了有关如何设置ABM来评估影响替代燃料车辆扩散的因素的见解。这些见解可以应用于其他类型的生态创新。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of product innovation management》 |2011年第2期|p.152-168|共17页
  • 作者

    Ting Zhang; Sonja Gensler; Rosanna Garcia;

  • 作者单位

    Rosanna Garcia, College of Business Administration, Northeastern University, 202 Hayden Hall, Boston,MA 02115.;

    Rosanna Garcia, College of Business Administration, Northeastern University, 202 Hayden Hall, Boston,MA 02115.;

    Rosanna Garcia, College of Business Administration, Northeastern University, 202 Hayden Hall, Boston,MA 02115.;

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