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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of public economics >Fear of Obama: An empirical study of the demand for guns and the US 2008 presidential election
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Fear of Obama: An empirical study of the demand for guns and the US 2008 presidential election

机译：对奥巴马的恐惧：对枪支需求和美国2008年总统大选的实证研究

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摘要

Using monthly data constructed from futures markets on presidential election outcomes and a novel proxy for firearm purchases, this paper analyzes the response of the demand for guns to the likelihood of Barack Obama being elected in 2008. Point estimate suggests the existence of a large Obama effect on the demand for guns. This political effect is larger than the effect associated with the worsening economic conditions. This paper presents robust empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis that the unprecedented increase in the demand for guns was partially driven by fears of a future Obama gun-control policy. Conversely, the evidence for a racial prejudice motivation is less conclusive. Furthermore, this paper argues that the Obama effect did not represent a short-lived intertemporal substitution effect, and that it permanently affected the stock of guns in circulation. Finally, states that had the largest increases in the demand for guns during the 2008 election race experienced significant changes in certain categories of crime relative to other states following Obama's election. In particular, those states were 20% more likely to experience a shooting event where at least three people were killed. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：本文使用从期货市场构建的关于总统选举结果的月度数据以及新颖的枪支购买代理，分析了枪支需求对巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）在2008年当选的反应。对枪支的需求。这种政治影响大于经济状况恶化带来的影响。本文提供了有力的经验证据，支持以下假设：对枪支需求的空前增长在一定程度上是由对未来奥巴马枪支管制政策的担忧所驱动。相反，种族偏见动机的证据尚无定论。此外，本文认为，奥巴马效应并不代表短暂的跨期替代效应，而是永久影响流通中的枪支库存。最后，在奥巴马当选之后，与2008年大选期间枪支需求增长最大的州相比，其他州的某些类别的犯罪发生了重大变化。特别是，这些州经历枪击事件的可能性增加了20％，其中至少有3人被杀。 （C）2015 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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