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首页> 外文期刊>The Journal of real estate finance and economics >Disentangling the Short and Long-Run Effects of Occupied Stock in the Rental Adjustment Process
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Disentangling the Short and Long-Run Effects of Occupied Stock in the Rental Adjustment Process

机译：区分租金调整过程中被占用库存的短期和长期影响

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摘要

In the current stand of literature on the rental adjustment process starting with Hendershott et al. (Real Estate Economics, 30, 165-183, 2002a, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 24, 59-87, 2002b) it has become practice to treat the compound variable "occupied stock" as a supply variable. In this study we show that this variable deserves a more critical investigation and that the general view of a supply variable may be misleading. Using panel data covering 30 urban areas for 17 years, we investigate the rental adjustment process in the German office market. The application of recently developed cointegration techniques for non-stationary panel data in conjunction with the corresponding error correction model (ECM) enables us to overcome the data limitations, particularly existent for most European real estate markets. Hence, our primary motivation is (a) to demonstrate how "occupied stock" should be interpreted correctly and (b) to provide useful insights into the long-term relationships and short-run dynamics of real office prime rents. The empirical evidence suggests that a one percent rise in office employment increases real rents on average by 1.64% through higher demand for office space. On the other hand, a one percent increase in the supply of office space decreases real rents in the long run by 2.25%. The results from the error correction model show that deviations from the long-run equilibrium lead to an adjustment process which restores equilibrium within approximately 3 years.
机译：在当前关于租金调整过程的文献中，从Hendershott等人开始。 （《房地产经济学》，第30卷，第165-183页，2002a，《房地产金融与经济学杂志》，第24卷，第59-87页，2002b）将复合变量“占用的存货”视为供应变量已成为惯例。在这项研究中，我们表明该变量值得进行更严格的研究，而且对供应变量的一般看法可能会产生误导。我们使用覆盖30个城市地区17年的面板数据，调查了德国办公楼市场的租金调整过程。最近开发的用于非平稳面板数据的协整技术与相应的纠错模型（ECM）的结合使我们能够克服数据局限性，尤其是对于大多数欧洲房地产市场而言。因此，我们的主要动机是（a）演示如何正确解释“占用的存货”，以及（b）提供有关实际办公室优质租金的长期关系和短期动态的有用见解。经验证据表明，由于对办公空间的需求增加，办公室就业人数每增加1％，平均实际租金就会增加1.64％。另一方面，从长远来看，办公空间供应量每增加1％，实际租金就会减少2.25％。误差校正模型的结果表明，与长期均衡的偏差会导致调整过程，该过程将在大约3年内恢复均衡。

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