Insured Loss Inflation: How Natural Catastrophes Affect Reconstruction Costs

Doehrmann David; Guertler Marc; Hibbeln Martin

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Insured Loss Inflation: How Natural Catastrophes Affect Reconstruction Costs

机译：保险损失通货膨胀：自然灾害如何影响重建成本

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In the aftermath of a natural catastrophe, there is increased demand for skilled reconstruction labor, which leads to significant increases in reconstruction labor wages and hence insured losses. Such inflation effects are known as Demand Surge effects. It is important for insurance companies to properly account for these effects when calculating insurance premiums and determining economic capital. We propose an approach to quantifying the Demand Surge effect and present an econometric model for the effect that is based on 192 catastrophe events in the United States. Our model explains more than 75 percent of the variance of the Demand Surge effect and is thus able to identify the key drivers of the phenomenon.

机译：在自然灾害之后，对熟练的重建工作的需求增加，这导致重建工作的工资显着增加，从而导致保险损失。这种通货膨胀效应被称为需求激增效应。对于保险公司而言，在计算保险费和确定经济资本时适当考虑这些影响非常重要。我们提出了一种量化需求激增效应的方法，并基于美国的192次巨灾事件，提出了一种针对该效应的计量经济学模型。我们的模型解释了需求激增效应的75％以上的方差，因此能够确定现象的关键驱动因素。

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来源
《The journal of risk and insurance》 |2017年第3期|851-879|共29页
作者
Doehrmann David; Guertler Marc; Hibbeln Martin;
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Deutsch Bundesbank, Markets Dept, Wilhelm Epstein Str 14, D-60431 Frankfurt, Germany;

Braunschweig Inst Technol, Dept Finance, Abt Jerusalem Str 7, D-38106 Braunschweig, Germany;

Univ Duisburg Essen, Mercator Sch Management, Lotharstr 65, D-47057 Duisburg, Germany;

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Insured Loss Inflation: How Natural Catastrophes Affect Reconstruction Costs

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