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Simulation of Extreme Insured Losses in Natural Catastrophes

机译:自然灾变中极端保险损失的模拟

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This article aims to present the application of probability modelling and simulations based on quantile function of extreme insured losses in the world natural catastrophes based on data in time period 1970-2014, published in Swiss Re Sigma No2/2015. Quantile function provides an appropriate and flexible approach to the probability modelling needed to obtain well-fitted tails. We are specifically interested in modelling and simulations the tails of loss distributions. In a number of applications of quantile functions in insurance and reinsurance risk management interest focuses particularly on the extreme observations in the upper tail of probability distribution. Fortunately it is possible to simulate the observations in one tail of distribution without simulating the central values. This advantage will be used for estimate a few extreme high insured losses in the world's natural catastrophes in future.
机译:本文旨在根据基于1970 - 2014年期间的数据,在瑞士雷西格玛第2/2015年出版的基础上,基于世界自然灾难中极端保险损失的极端保险损失的定量函数的应用概率建模和模拟。定位功能提供了获得拟合尾部所需的概率建模的适当和灵活的方法。我们专门对建模和模拟损失分布尾部感兴趣。在保险和再保险风险管理中的许多分量函数的应用中,特别关注概率分布的上尾的极端观察。幸运的是,可以在一个分布尾部模拟观察而不模拟中心值。这一优势将用于将来估计世界自然灾难中的一些极端高保损失。

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