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首页> 外文期刊>The journal of risk and insurance >Health State Transitions and Longevity Effects on Retirees' Optimal Annuitization
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Health State Transitions and Longevity Effects on Retirees' Optimal Annuitization

机译：健康状况的转变和寿命对退休人员最佳年金的影响

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摘要

The interplay between longevity risk and health state transitions for retirees' optimal annuitization decisions is investigated. Using a life-cycle framework incorporating wealth levels, bequest motives, and consumption floors created by government subsidies, we examine how increased longevity in conjunction with an individual's health state transition process impacts annuity purchase decisions. Health state transition matrices are estimated from the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) data. The effects of increased longevity on annuitization decisions are considered when longevity is both accompanied by increased time spent in healthier states (morbidity compression) or experienced by more time in unhealthy states (morbidity expansion). We find that retirees' annuity demand is affected by wealth, initial health status, and expansion or compression of morbidity. Wealthier retirees have higher annuity demand when health shocks are considered, and increased longevity increases demand even more when retirees expect an expansion or slight morbidity compression. With health shocks and expectations of severe morbidity compression considered, the opposite effect might occur. Thus, an annuity can help retirees hedge health shock costs when slight compression or expansion of morbidity occurs. For retirees with lower wealth, the consumption floor provided by governmental subsidies will create a decreased propensity to annuitize.
机译：研究了退休人员最佳年金决策的长寿风险与健康状态转换之间的相互作用。通过使用包含财富水平，遗赠动机和政府补贴创建的消费底线的生命周期框架，我们研究了寿命的延长以及个人的健康状况转变过程如何影响年金购买决策。根据健康和退休调查（HRS）数据估算健康状态转换矩阵。当寿命伴随着在健康状态下花费的时间增加（发病率压缩）或在不健康状态下花费更多时间（发病率扩大）时，就考虑了寿命延长对年金化决策的影响。我们发现，退休人员的年金需求受财富，初始健康状况以及发病率扩大或压缩的影响。当考虑到健康冲击时，富裕退休人员的年金需求较高，而退休人员预计会扩大发病率或略微降低发病率，则更长的寿命会增加需求。考虑到健康冲击和对严重发病率的预期，可能会产生相反的效果。因此，年金可以在轻微压缩或扩大发病率时帮助退休人员对冲健康冲击成本。对于那些财富较低的退休人员，政府补贴提供的最低消费水平将降低年金的购买倾向。

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  • 来源
    《The journal of risk and insurance》 |2017年第s1期|319-343|共25页
  • 作者

    Ai Jing; Brockett Patrick L.; Golden Linda L.; Zhu Wei;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Hawaii Manoa, Shidler Coll Business, 2404 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA;

    Univ Texas Austin, Dept Informat Risk & Operat Management, Austin, TX 78712 USA;

    Univ Texas Austin, Dept Mkt, Austin, TX 78712 USA;

    Univ Int Business & Econ, Sch Insurance & Econ, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China;

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