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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of risk and uncertainty >Valuing mortality risk in China: Comparing stated-preference estimates from 2005 and 2016
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Valuing mortality risk in China: Comparing stated-preference estimates from 2005 and 2016

机译：评估中国的死亡风险：比较2005年和2016年的陈述偏好估计

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摘要

We estimate the marginal rate of substitution of income for reduction in current annual mortality risk (the value per statistical life or VSL) using stated-preference surveys administered to independent samples of the general population of Chengdu, China in 2005 and 2016. We evaluate the quality of estimates by the theoretical criteria that willingness to pay (WTP) for risk reduction should be strictly positive and nearly proportional to the magnitude of the risk reduction (evaluated by comparing answers between respondents) and test the effect of excluding respondents whose answers violate these criteria. For subsamples of respondents that satisfy the criteria, point estimates of the sensitivity of WTP to risk reduction are consistent with theory and yield estimates of VSL that are two to three times larger than estimated using the full samples. Between 2005 and 2016, estimated VSL increased sharply, from about 22,000 USD in 2005 to 550,000 USD in 2016. Income also increased substantially over this period. Attributing the change in VSL solely to the change in real income implies an income elasticity of about 3.0. Our results suggest that estimates of VSL from stated-preference studies in which WTP is not close to proportionate to the stated risk reduction may be biased downward by a factor of two or more, and that VSL is likely to grow rapidly in a population with strong economic growth, which implies that environmental-health, safety, and other policies should become increasingly protective.
机译：我们使用对2005年和2016年中国成都市总人口的独立样本进行的陈述偏好调查，估算了收入替代减少当前年死亡率风险的边际率（每统计生命值或VSL）。根据降低风险的支付意愿（WTP）的理论标准进行的估算质量应严格为正，并且应与降低风险的幅度（通过比较受访者的回答进行评估）几乎成正比，并测试排除答案违背这些回答的受访者的效果标准。对于满足标准的受访者子样本，WTP对降低风险的敏感性的点估计与理论上和VSL的收益估计一致，后者是使用完整样本估计的两到三倍。在2005年至2016年期间，估计的VSL急剧增加，从2005年的约22,000美元增加到2016年的550,000美元。在此期间，收入也大幅增加。仅将VSL的变化归因于实际收入的变化，意味着收入弹性约为3.0。我们的结果表明，根据陈述偏好研究（其中WTP与陈述的风险降低不成正比）的VSL估计值可能会下降两个或更多，并且在具有较强风险的人群中VSL可能快速增长经济增长，这意味着环境健康，安全和其他政策应变得越来越具有保护性。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of risk and uncertainty》 |2019年第3期|167-186|共20页
  • 作者

    Hammitt James K.; Geng Fangli; Gu Xiaoqi; Nielsen Chris P.;

  • 作者单位

    Harvard Univ, Ctr Risk Anal, 718 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115 USA|Harvard Univ, Ctr Hlth Decis Sci, 718 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115 USA|Harvard John A Paulson Sch Engn & Appl Sci, Harvard China Project Energy Econ & Environm, 29 Oxford St, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA|Univ Toulouse Capitole, Toulouse Sch Econ, 21 Allee Brienne, F-31000 Toulouse, France;

    Harvard Univ, Ctr Risk Anal, 718 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115 USA|Harvard Univ, Ctr Hlth Decis Sci, 718 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115 USA|Harvard John A Paulson Sch Engn & Appl Sci, Harvard China Project Energy Econ & Environm, 29 Oxford St, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA;

    Harvard John A Paulson Sch Engn & Appl Sci, Harvard China Project Energy Econ & Environm, 29 Oxford St, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA|Ohio State Univ, Dept Agr Environm & Dev Econ, 250 Agr Adm Bldg,2120 Fyffe Rd, Columbus, OH 43210 USA|Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia, 10 Independence Mall, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA;

    Harvard John A Paulson Sch Engn & Appl Sci, Harvard China Project Energy Econ & Environm, 29 Oxford St, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Value of statistical life; Stated preference; Willingness to pay; China;

    机译：统计生活的价值;说明偏好;愿意支付;中国;

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