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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of risk and uncertainty >Valuing mortality risk in China: Comparing stated-preference estimates from 2005 and 2016
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Valuing mortality risk in China: Comparing stated-preference estimates from 2005 and 2016

机译：估值中国的死亡率风险：比较2005年和2016年的偏好估计数

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摘要

We estimate the marginal rate of substitution of income for reduction in current annual mortality risk (the value per statistical life or VSL) using stated-preference surveys administered to independent samples of the general population of Chengdu, China in 2005 and 2016. We evaluate the quality of estimates by the theoretical criteria that willingness to pay (WTP) for risk reduction should be strictly positive and nearly proportional to the magnitude of the risk reduction (evaluated by comparing answers between respondents) and test the effect of excluding respondents whose answers violate these criteria. For subsamples of respondents that satisfy the criteria, point estimates of the sensitivity of WTP to risk reduction are consistent with theory and yield estimates of VSL that are two to three times larger than estimated using the full samples. Between 2005 and 2016, estimated VSL increased sharply, from about 22,000 USD in 2005 to 550,000 USD in 2016. Income also increased substantially over this period. Attributing the change in VSL solely to the change in real income implies an income elasticity of about 3.0. Our results suggest that estimates of VSL from stated-preference studies in which WTP is not close to proportionate to the stated risk reduction may be biased downward by a factor of two or more, and that VSL is likely to grow rapidly in a population with strong economic growth, which implies that environmental-health, safety, and other policies should become increasingly protective.
机译：我们估计利用向2005年和2016年成都总人口一般人群的独立样本给予当前年死亡率风险（每统计生命或统计生活价值或VSL的价值）的边际替换收入的边际率（统计生活价值或VSL）。我们评估了通过理论标准的理论标准的估算质量应严格积极且与减少风险减少程度的严格积极且几乎成正比（通过比较受访者之间的答案），并测试答案违反这些答复的受访者的效果标准。对于满足标准的受访者的归档，WTP对风险敏感性的点估计与VSL的理论和产量估计一致，VSL的估计比使用完整样本估计的两到三倍。在2005年至2016年期间，估计的VSL大幅增加，从2005年的大约22,000美元增加到2016年的550,000美元。在此期间的基本上也增加了收入。仅归因于实际收入的变化的VSL变化意味着约3.0的收入弹性。我们的研究结果表明，估计来自所述偏好研究的VSL，其中WTP与所述风险降低的平均值不接近，可能会向下偏置两倍以上，并且VSL可能在具有强大的人群中迅速生长经济增长意味着环境健康，安全和其他政策应该越来越受保护。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of risk and uncertainty》 |2019年第3期|167-186|共20页
  • 作者

    Hammitt James K.; Geng Fangli; Gu Xiaoqi; Nielsen Chris P.;

  • 作者单位

    Harvard Univ Ctr Risk Anal 718 Huntington Ave Boston MA 02115 USA|Harvard Univ Ctr Hlth Decis Sci 718 Huntington Ave Boston MA 02115 USA|Harvard John A Paulson Sch Engn & Appl Sci Harvard China Project Energy Econ & Environm 29 Oxford St Cambridge MA 02138 USA|Univ Toulouse Capitole Toulouse Sch Econ 21 Allee Brienne F-31000 Toulouse France;

    Harvard Univ Ctr Risk Anal 718 Huntington Ave Boston MA 02115 USA|Harvard Univ Ctr Hlth Decis Sci 718 Huntington Ave Boston MA 02115 USA|Harvard John A Paulson Sch Engn & Appl Sci Harvard China Project Energy Econ & Environm 29 Oxford St Cambridge MA 02138 USA;

    Harvard John A Paulson Sch Engn & Appl Sci Harvard China Project Energy Econ & Environm 29 Oxford St Cambridge MA 02138 USA|Ohio State Univ Dept Agr Environm & Dev Econ 250 Agr Adm Bldg 2120 Fyffe Rd Columbus OH 43210 USA|Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia 10 Independence Mall Philadelphia PA 19106 USA;

    Harvard John A Paulson Sch Engn & Appl Sci Harvard China Project Energy Econ & Environm 29 Oxford St Cambridge MA 02138 USA;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Value of statistical life; Stated preference; Willingness to pay; China;

    机译：统计生活的价值;说明偏好;愿意支付;中国;

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