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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of risk research >Hourly changes in accident risk for bus drivers
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Hourly changes in accident risk for bus drivers

机译：公交司机每小时发生的事故风险变化

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Traffic accident risk has in some studies been found to change with the time of day, after controlling for exposure, probably due to diurnal changes in the human body, which changes alertness. However, exposure data are not always of good quality, and culpability for accidents is not always taken into account. The change in culpable accident risk over the day for bus drivers was therefore investigated, with single accidents analysed separately, using induced exposure (non-culpable bus accidents) as well as general traffic density and number of buses on the road as controlling factors. It was found that the risk distribution was fairly similar to some previous results before controlling for exposure, but dissimilar to other, probably indicating that bus drivers have a somewhat different risk profile, but also that previous studies may not have controlled for exposure in a reliable way. When exposure was held constant, the risk distribution was different from all other studies. The three different exposure measures correlated strongly between themselves, and each would seem to be adequate for a basic control. However, although general traffic density was most strongly correlated with culpable bus accidents, the induced exposure parameter added some explained variance. Single accidents had a very different risk distribution as compared to other culpable accidents when exposure had been held constant. A number of unexpected effects were also noted, mainly that single accidents were associated most strongly with general traffic density.
机译：在一些研究中，发现交通事故风险在控制暴露后会随一天的时间而变化，这可能是由于人体的昼夜变化，从而改变了机敏性。但是，暴露数据并非始终具有良好的质量，并非总是考虑事故的可归责性。因此，研究人员对公交车驾驶员一天中可归咎的事故风险的变化进行了分析，并使用诱发暴露（非可归类的公交车事故）以及一般的交通密度和道路上的公交车数量作为控制因素，对单独的事故进行了单独分析。研究发现，在控制接触之前，风险分布与先前的某些结果相当相似，但与其他结果不同，这可能表明公交车司机的风险状况有所不同，但先前的研究可能并未在可靠的控制下控制接触道路。当暴露保持恒定时，风险分布与所有其他研究均不同。三种不同的暴露量度在它们之间有着很强的相关性，并且每种似乎都足以用于基本控制。但是，尽管一般的交通密度与可恶的公交车事故之间有最强的相关性，但诱发的暴露参数却增加了一些可解释的方差。当暴露水平保持恒定时，与其他可能的事故相比，单起事故的风险分配有很大不同。还注意到了许多意想不到的影响，主要是单次事故与总体交通密度最密切相关。

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