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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of risk research >Things are different today: the challenge of global systemic risks
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Things are different today: the challenge of global systemic risks

机译：今天的东西不同：全球系统风险的挑战

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摘要

While most OECD countries have been rather successful in reducing risks to human lives, health, and the quality of the environment, the record for new global risks such as climate change, pandemics, financial breakdowns, and social inequality is much less convincing. This is the challenge of systemic risks. Since the global financial crisis, it has received rapidly growing attention. However, considerable conceptual confusion mars research on and practical responses to this challenge. We undertake an effort of conceptual clarification, starting with the paradigmatic example of the financial crisis. This leads to a view of global systems as involving an interplay between micro- and macrodynamics internal to the system, with the system simultaneously interacting with its environment. Such dynamics typically show periods of stability, punctuated by situations opening up several possible futures. Alternative global futures, like other prospects, constitute risks for an agent if she considers some of these futures as less desirable than others. Agents may have lexicographic preferences over futures they would like to avoid, so as to consider some futures as just undesirable, but others as catastrophic. If an agent expects some of the relevant futures at a bifurcation point of a global system to be catastrophic in this sense, they are faced with a systemic risk.
机译：虽然大多数经合组织国家在减少对人类生活，健康和环境质量的风险方面取得了相当成功的，但新的全球风险的记录，如气候变化，流行病，财务故障和社会不平等的令人信服程度不那么令人信服。这是系统风险的挑战。自全球金融危机以来，它得到了迅速增长的关注。然而，相当大的概念混淆火星对这一挑战的研究和实际反应。从金融危机的范式示例开始，我们努力阐述概念澄清。这导致全球系统视图涉及系统内部的微型和宏动力学之间的相互作用，系统同时与其环境进行交互。这种动态通常展示稳定性的时期，通过若干可能的期货开放的情况来标点。如果她认为这些期货中的一些期货，那么其他前景，其他前景，替代全球期货将构成代理人的风险，这是比其他期货不太可取的。代理商可能会在他们想要避免期货上有词典偏好，以便将一些期货视为不受欢迎的，而是灾难性的。如果一个代理人预计在全球系统的分叉点处的一些相关期货在这种意义上遭到灾难性，他们面临着系统性风险。

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