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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of risk research >Aggregated risk: an experimental study on combining different ways of presenting risk information
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Aggregated risk: an experimental study on combining different ways of presenting risk information

机译：汇总风险：呈现出风险信息的不同方式的实验研究

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Contemporary disaster risk management requires the exchange and integration of risk information across societal sectors and administrative borders. However, differences in how risk is described can be an obstacle to making sense of the material. This paper focuses on the challenge of aggregating risk assessments from multiple stakeholders and aims to establish the characteristics of risk descriptions that are most conducive for attaining a comprehensive understanding of risk. In an empirical study, risk management students from two different scholarly traditions (engineering and social sciences) rated how useful different combinations of risk descriptions from two fictive municipalities were for (i) comparing their levels of risk and (ii) making decisions on risk-reducing measures in the area covered by both municipalities. Adopting a within-subjects design, the participants were faced with six different combinations of risk descriptions, which varied with respect to how specific assessments of consequences and likelihood were expressed, and whether a supporting narrative was provided. The study also explored the effects of combining risk descriptions of the same type (e.g. where both expressed consequences and probabilities with qualitative ordinal scales) with two of dissimilar types (e.g. one qualitative ordinal and one quantitative). Overall, the results indicate that disaster risk management systems would benefit from greater consistency in the way interdependent stakeholders describe risks, and from greater use of quantitative assessments. Furthermore, a supporting narrative can provide useful contextual information that may facilitate the comparison of incongruent risk descriptions. Challenges related to these findings are discussed.
机译：当代灾害风险管理需要交流和整合风险信息，跨社会部门和行政边界。然而，差异的差异是如何造成材料感的障碍。本文重点介绍了多个利益攸关方汇总风险评估的挑战，旨在建立风险描述的特点，这些风险描述对于实现风险全面了解。在一个实证研究中，来自两个不同学术传统（工程和社会科学）的风险管理学生评估了两个虚构城市的风险描述的不同组合是如何为（i）比较他们的风险水平和（ii）制定风险的决定 - 减少两个城市所涵盖的地区的措施。采用受试者内部设计，参与者面临着六种不同的风险描述组合，这在表达了对后果和可能性的特定评估以及提供了支持叙事的情况下多样化。该研究还探讨了相同类型的风险描述的影响（例如，两者的后果和具有定性序数尺度的概率）的影响，其中两种不同类型（例如，一个定性序数和一种定量）。总体而言，结果表明，灾害风险管理系统将受益于相互依存利益相关者描述风险的方式中的更大一致性，以及更多地利用量化评估。此外，支持叙述可以提供有助于比较不一致风险描述的有用的上下文信息。讨论了与这些发现相关的挑战。

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