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The challenges of longitudinal surveys in the flood risk domain

机译：洪水风险领域纵向调查的挑战

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There has been much research regarding the perceptions, preferences, behaviour, and responses of people exposed to flooding and other natural hazards. Cross-sectional surveys have been the predominant method applied in such research. While cross-sectional data can provide a snapshot of a respondent's behaviour and perceptions, it cannot be assumed that the respondent's perceptions are constant over time. As a result, many important research questions relating to dynamic processes, such as changes in risk perceptions, adaptation behaviour, and resilience cannot be fully addressed by cross-sectional surveys. To overcome these shortcomings, there has been a call for developing longitudinal (or panel) datasets in research on natural hazards, vulnerabilities, and risks. However, experiences with implementing longitudinal surveys in the flood risk domain (FRD), which pose distinct methodological challenges, are largely lacking. The key problems are sample recruitment, attrition rate, and attrition bias. We present a review of the few existing longitudinal surveys in the FRD. In addition, we investigate the potential attrition bias and attrition rates in a panel dataset of flood-affected households in Germany. We find little potential for attrition bias to occur. High attrition rates across longitudinal survey waves are the larger concern. A high attrition rate rapidly depletes the longitudinal sample. To overcome high attrition, longitudinal data should be collected as part of a multisector partnership to allow for sufficient resources to implement sample retention strategies. If flood-specific panels are developed, different sample retention strategies should be applied and evaluated in future research to understand how much-needed longitudinal surveying techniques can be successfully applied to the study of individuals threatened by flooding.
机译：关于暴露于洪水和其他自然灾害的人们的看法，偏好，行为和反应已经存在了很多研究。横截面调查一直是在这种研究中应用的主要方法。虽然横断面数据可以提供受访者行为和感知的快照，但不能假设受访者的感知随着时间的推移是恒定的。因此，与动态过程有关的许多重要研究问题，例如风险感知，适应行为和弹性的变化，不能通过横断面调查完全解决。为了克服这些缺点，呼吁在自然灾害，漏洞和风险研究中开发纵向（或面板）数据集。然而，在很大程度上缺乏，在造成不同的方法挑战的洪水风险领域（FRD）中实施纵向调查的经验。关键问题是样本招聘，消耗率和磨损偏差。我们介绍了FRD中少数现有的纵向调查。此外，我们还调查德国受洪水影响家庭面板数据集的潜在消磨偏差和磨损率。我们发现潜逃偏见的潜力很少。纵向调查波的高磨损率是较大的关注。高磨损率迅速耗尽纵向样品。为了克服高磨损，应将纵向数据作为多选员伙伴关系的一部分收集，以允许充分资源实施样本保留策略。如果开发了洪水专用面板，应在未来的研究中应用和评估不同的样本保留策略，以了解如何成功地应用于通过洪水威胁的个人研究的需求需求的纵向测量技术。

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