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Modeling the Effects of Dispersion of Design Teams on System Failure Risk

机译:模拟设计团队分散对系统故障风险的影响

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摘要

Budget restrictions and advances in technology are making the use of geographically distributed teams in satellite systems more common than ever. However, the influence of dispersion of design teams, cost, performance, and reliability of the final system is not always clear. An outside source may provide benefits in terms of increased skill and experience or decreased costs but also may increase the probability of communications or interface errors. Evidence is presented that supports the argument that satellite anomaly rates increase when one company does not make an entire satellite. The probability of a technical failure in operations is focused on and a model is presented that attempts to quantify the risk, performance, and cost tradeoffs associated with the geographic dispersion of a major part of a satellite, for example, the payload. Our model is based on probabilistic risk analysis, expert opinion, influence diagrams, and the system-action-management framework that involves technical as well as human and organizational factors. We provide an illustrative example, combining actual data and expert opinion, that demonstrates and compares the evaluation of a hypothetical mission with and without team dispersion. The model allows analysis of the sensitivity of the results to the values of the inputs.
机译:预算的限制和技术的进步使卫星系统中地理上分散的团队的使用比以往任何时候都更为普遍。但是,设计团队的分散,成本,性能和最终系统可靠性的影响并不总是很清楚。外部资源可能会增加技能和经验或降低成本,但也可能增加通信或接口错误的可能性。提出的证据支持这样的论点,即当一家公司没有制造整个卫星时,卫星异常率会增加。着重研究了操作中技术故障的可能性,并提出了一个模型,该模型试图量化与卫星主要部分(例如有效载荷)的地理分布相关的风险,性能和成本折衷。我们的模型基于概率风险分析,专家意见,影响图以及涉及技术以及人为因素和组织因素的系统动作管理框架。我们提供了一个结合实际数据和专家意见的说明性示例,该示例演示并比较了有团队分散和没有团队分散的情况下对假设任务的评估。该模型允许分析结果对输入值的敏感性。

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