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首页> 外文期刊>The journal of technology transfer >Modeling the Impact of Technical Change on Emissions Abatement Investments in Developing Countries
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Modeling the Impact of Technical Change on Emissions Abatement Investments in Developing Countries

机译：模拟技术变化对发展中国家减排投资的影响

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The cost of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation over time depends on both the rate of technical change in leading-edge technologies and the diffusion of knowledge and capabilities throughout international markets. This paper presents a framework developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and RTI International (RTI) for incorporating technical change in non-CO2 GHG mitigation projections over time. An engineering (bottom-up) approach is used to model technical change as a set of price and productivity factors that change over time as a function of technology advances and the location of developing countries relative to the technology efficiency frontier. S-shaped diffusion curves are generated, which demonstrate the maturity of the market for a given technology in a given region. The framework is demonstrated for coal mine methane mitigation technologies in the United States and China, but it is applicable for the full range of technology adoption issues.
机译：随着时间的推移，减少温室气体（GHG）的成本既取决于领先技术的技术变化速度，也取决于知识和能力在国际市场上的扩散。本文介绍了由美国环境保护署（EPA）和RTI国际（RTI）开发的框架，用于将技术变化随时间推移纳入非CO2温室气体减排预测中。工程（自下而上）方法用于将技术变化建模为一组价格和生产率因素，这些因素会随着技术的进步以及发展中国家相对于技术效率前沿的位置而随时间变化。生成了S形扩散曲线，表明了给定区域内给定技术的市场成熟度。该框架已在美国和中国针对煤矿瓦斯减排技术进行了演示，但适用于所有技术采用问题。

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