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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >THE SENSITIVITY OF CALIFORNIA WATER RESOURCES TO CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
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THE SENSITIVITY OF CALIFORNIA WATER RESOURCES TO CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

机译：加州水资源对气候变化情景的敏感性

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摘要

Using the latest available General Circulation Model (GCM) results we present an assessment of climate change impacts on California hydrology and water resources. The approach considers the output of two GCMs, the PCM and the HadCM3, run under two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios: the high emission A1fi and the low emission B1. The GCM output was statistically downscaled and used in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale distributed hydrologic model to derive inflows to major reservoirs in the California Central Valley. Historical inflows used as inputs to the water resources model CalSim II were modified to represent the climate change perturbed conditions for water supply deliveries, reliability, reservoir storage and changes to variables of environmental concern. Our results show greater negative impacts to California hydrology and water resources than previous assessments of climate change impacts in the region. These impacts, which translate into smaller streamflows, lower reservoir storage and decreased water supply deliveries and reliability, will be especially pronounced later in the 21st Century and south of the San Francisco bay Delta. The importance of considering how climate change impacts vary for different temporal, spatial, and institutional conditions in addition to the average impacts is also demonstrated.
机译：利用最新的通用环流模型（GCM）结果，我们对气候变化对加利福尼亚水文学和水资源的影响进行了评估。该方法考虑了两个GCM的输出，即PCM和HadCM3，它们在两种不同的温室气体（GHG）排放情景下运行：高排放量A1fi和低排放量B1。 GCM的输出在统计上进行了缩减，并用于可变渗透能力（VIC）宏观分布式水文模型中，以得出流入加州中央山谷主要水库的水量。修改了用作水资源模型CalSim II的输入的历史流入量，以表示气候变化扰动了供水，可靠度，水库存储以及环境变量的变化。我们的结果显示，与之前对该地区气候变化影响的评估相比，对加利福尼亚水文和水资源的负面影响更大。这些影响转化为较小的水流，较低的水库存储量以及降低的供水量和可靠性，在21世纪后期和旧金山湾三角洲南部尤其明显。还证明了除了平均影响之外，考虑气候变化影响在不同的时间，空间和制度条件下如何变化的重要性。

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