STREAM TEMPERATURE SURGES UNDER URBANIZATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE: DATA, MODELS, AND RESPONSES

Kaeren C. Nelson; Margaret A. Palmer

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STREAM TEMPERATURE SURGES UNDER URBANIZATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE: DATA, MODELS, AND RESPONSES

机译：城市化和气候变化下的流温度变化：数据，模型和响应

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Multiple anthropogenic stressors, including increased watershed imperviousness, destruction of the riparian vegetation, increased siltation, and changes in climate, will impact streams over the coming century. These stressors will alter water temperature, thus influencing ecological processes and stream biota. Quantitative tools are needed to predict the magnitude and direction of altered thermal regimes. Here, empirical relationships were derived to complement a simple model of in-stream temperature [developed by Caissie et al. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 25 (1998) 250; Journal of Hydrology 251 (2001) 14], including seasonal temperature shifts linked to land use, and temperature surges linked to localized rainstorms; surges in temperature averaged about 3.5℃ and dissipated over about 3 h. These temperature surges occurred frequently at the most urbanized sites (up to 10% of summer days) and could briefly increase maximum temperature by >7℃. The combination of empirical relationships and model show that headwater streams may be more pervasively impacted by urbanization than by climate change, although the two stressors reinforce each other. A profound community shift, from common cold and coolwater species to some of the many warmwater species currently present in smaller numbers, may be expected, as shown by a count of days on which temperature exceeds the "good growth" range for coldwater species.

机译：多种人为压力源，包括流域不透水的增加，河岸植被的破坏，泥沙淤积的增加以及气候的变化，都将在下个世纪影响河流。这些压力源将改变水温，从而影响生态过程和河流生物。需要使用定量工具来预测热态变化的幅度和方向。在这里，经验关系被推导以补充简单的流内温度模型[由Caissie等人开发。加拿大土木工程杂志25（1998）250; Journal of Hydrology 251（2001）14]，包括与土地利用相关的季节性温度变化以及与局部暴雨相关的温度升高；平均温度波动约3.5℃，耗散约3小时。这些温度激增经常发生在城市化程度最高的地区（夏季最多10％），并且可能使最高温度短暂升高> 7℃。经验关系和模型的结合表明，尽管两个压力因素相互促进，但城市化可能比气候变化更普遍影响上游水源。从温度超过冷水物种的“良好生长”范围的天数可以看出，可能会发生从普通的冷水和冷水物种到目前数量较少的许多温水物种中的某些物种的深刻转变。

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《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》 |2007年第2期|p.440-452|共13页
作者
Kaeren C. Nelson; Margaret A. Palmer;
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作者单位

Department of Entomology, PLS 4112, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742-4454;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类自然资源合理开发与环境保护;
关键词
temperature; urbanization; climate variability/change; precipitation; flashiness; critical thermal maxima; impervious surface; temperature surge;

机译：温度;城市化;气候变化/变化;降水;浮华;临界热最大值;不透水的表面;温度波动;

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2. Assessing climate change impacts on stream temperature in the Athabasca River Basin using SWAT equilibrium temperature model and its potential impacts on stream ecosystem [J] . Xinzhong Du, Narayan Kumar Shrestha, Junye Wang The Science of the Total Environment . 2019,第PTa2期

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5. Modeling USA stream temperatures for stream biodiversity and climate change assessments. [D] . Hill, Ryan A. 2013

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6. Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options [O] . Kären C. Nelson, Margaret A. Palmer, James E. Pizzuto, -1

机译：预测城市化和气候变化对河流生态系统的综合影响：从影响到管理方案
7. The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (ce) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 ce that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 ce, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 ce is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content. [O] . McGregor, Helen V., Evans, Michael N., Goosse, Hugues, 2015

机译：海洋调节了全球气候对自然和人为强迫的响应。然而，在过去的2,000年中（这是了解当前和未来气候对这些强迫的响应的关键间隔），全球海表温度变化及其潜在的驱动机制受到的约束很有限。在这里，我们提出了一个共同的时期（ce）的全球海面温度的全球综合，该综合来自57个符合严格质量控制标准的海洋重建项目。我们观察到从1到1800 ce的冷却趋势，对于显式测试重建中潜在的偏倚而言，该趋势很稳健。在801至1800 ce之间，表面降温趋势在质量上与地面温度重建的独立合成以及从使用过去外部辐射强迫的最佳估计的气候模型模拟集合推导出的海面温度合成在质量上是一致的。使用单一和累积强迫的气候模拟表明，从801到1800 ce的海洋表面冷却趋势主要不是对轨道强迫的反应，而是爆炸性火山爆发的频繁发生。我们的结果表明，火山喷发的反复簇可引起净的负辐射强迫，这会导致混合层海洋热量降低而导致百年和全球规模的降温趋势。

STREAM TEMPERATURE SURGES UNDER URBANIZATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE: DATA, MODELS, AND RESPONSES

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