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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AN URBAN CATCHMENT
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ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AN URBAN CATCHMENT

机译：评估城市集聚区气候变化可能产生的影响

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摘要

Stationarity of rainfall statistical parameters is a fundamental assumption in hydraulic infrastructure design that may not be valid in an era of changing climate. This study develops a framework for examining the potential impacts of future increases in short duration rainfall intensity on urban infrastructure and natural ecosystems of small watersheds and demonstrates this approach for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed in British Columbia, Canada. Nonstationarities in rainfall records are first analyzed with linear regression analysis, and the detected trends are extrapolated to build potential future rainfall scenarios. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used to analyze the effects of increased rainfall intensity on design peak flows and to assess future drainage infrastructure capacity according to the derived scenarios. While the framework provided herein may be modified for cases in which more complex distributions for rainfall intensity are needed and more sophisticated stormwater management models are available, linear regressions and SWMM are commonly used in practice and are applicable for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed. Potential future impacts on stream health are assessed using methods based on equivalent total impervious area. In terms of impacts on the drainage infrastructure, the results of this study indicate that increases in short duration rainfall intensity may be expected in the future but that they would not create severe impacts in the Mission/Wagg Creek system. The equivalent levels of imperviousness, however, suggest that the impacts on stream health could be far more damaging.
机译：降雨统计参数的平稳性是水力基础设施设计中的基本假设，在气候变化的时代可能无效。这项研究建立了一个框架，用于研究未来短期降雨强度的增加对小流域的城市基础设施和自然生态系统的潜在影响，并为加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省的米申/沃格溪流域演示了这种方法。首先使用线性回归分析来分析降雨记录中的非平稳性，然后推断检测到的趋势以建立潜在的未来降雨情景。雨水管理模型（SWMM）用于分析降雨强度增加对设计峰值流量的影响，并根据得出的情景评估未来的排水基础设施容量。虽然本文提供的框架可以针对需要更复杂的降雨强度分布并且可以使用更复杂的雨水管理模型的情况进行修改，但实际上，线性回归和SWMM通常被使用，并且适用于Mission / Wagg Creek流域。使用基于等效总不透水面积的方法评估未来对河流健康的潜在影响。就对排水基础设施的影响而言，这项研究的结果表明，未来可能会出现短期降雨强度的增加，但不会对Mission / Wagg Creek系统造成严重影响。但是，同等水平的不透水表明，对河流健康的影响可能更具破坏性。

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