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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >BIVARIATE FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF FLOODS USING COPULAS
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BIVARIATE FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF FLOODS USING COPULAS

机译：使用Copulas对流体进行双频分析

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摘要

Bivariate flood frequency analysis offers improved understanding of the complex flood process and useful information in preparing flood mitigation measures. However, difficulties arise from limited bivariate distribution functions available to jointly model the correlated flood peak and volume that have different univariate marginal distributions. Copulas are functions that link univariate distribution functions to form bivariate distribution functions, which can overcome such difficulties. The objective of this study was to analyze bivariate frequency of flood peak and volume using copulas. Separate univariate distributions of flood peak and volume are first fitted from observed data. Copulas are then employed to model the dependence between flood peak and volume and join the predetermined univariate marginal distributions to construct the bivariate distribution. The bivariate probabilities and associated return periods are calculated in terms of univariate marginal distributions and copulas. The advantage of using copulas is that they can separate the effect of dependence from the effects of the marginal distributions. In addition, explicit relationships between joint and univariate return periods are made possible when copulas are employed to construct bivariate distribution of floods. The annual floods of Tongtou flow gauge station in the Jhuoshuei River, Taiwan, are used to illustrate bivariate flood frequency analysis.
机译：双变量洪水频率分析提供了对复杂洪水过程的更好理解，并为准备防洪措施提供了有用的信息。然而，由于有限的双变量分布函数可用于联合建模具有不同单变量边际分布的相关洪峰和洪水量而引起的困难。 Copulas是将单变量分布函数链接起来以形成双变量分布函数的函数，可以克服这些困难。这项研究的目的是使用copulas分析洪水峰值和流量的双变量频率。首先根据观测数据拟合洪水峰值和流量的单变量分布。然后使用Copulas对洪峰和流量之间的相关性进行建模，并加入预定的单变量边际分布以构建双变量分布。根据单变量边际分布和copulas计算双变量概率和相关的回报期。使用copulas的优势在于它们可以将依赖的影响与边际分布的影响分开。此外，当使用copulas构造洪水的双变量分布时，联合和单变量返回期之间的明确关系成为可能。台湾the水河通头水位计站的年度洪水用于说明双变量洪水频率分析。

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