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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >Water Use Efficiency and Storage Capacity in South Asia by 2050
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Water Use Efficiency and Storage Capacity in South Asia by 2050

机译：到2050年南亚的水资源利用效率和存储容量

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More than one billion South Asians are affected by water scarcity. Pressure on water resources is likely to grow as a result of population growth, urban expansion, and climate change. This paper assesses the impacts of these effects on the historical hydrological baseline, with particular focus on irrigation. A geospatial water balance model was developed for this purpose based on geo-referenced information available in scientific public domain databases. Annual water supply and demand for a baseline period 1950-2000 were calculated and projected to 2050 using (1) outputs from 19 Global Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 for a Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5; (2) population projections to 2050; and (3) historical land-use patterns at the country level. Improvements in water use efficiency and storage capacity were analyzed using the Modified Water Scarcity Index of the baseline and the projected water balance in 2050 at the watershed scale.
机译：超过十亿的南亚人受到水资源短缺的影响。由于人口增长，城市扩张和气候变化，水资源压力可能会增加。本文评估了这些影响对历史水文基线的影响，尤其是灌溉。为此，基于科学公共领域数据库中可用的地理参考信息，开发了地理空间水平衡模型。计算了1950-2000年基线期的年供水和需求量，并使用以下公式将其预测到2050年：（1）代表性浓度途径4.5耦合模型比较项目第5阶段的19种全球循环模型的输出; （2）到2050年的人口预测; （3）国家一级的历史土地使用模式。使用基线的修正缺水指数和分水岭规模的2050年预计水平衡，分析了水利用效率和储存能力的提高。

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