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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Transportation Engineering >Risk-Based Two-Step Optimization Model for Highway Transportation Investment Decision-Making
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Risk-Based Two-Step Optimization Model for Highway Transportation Investment Decision-Making

机译：基于风险的公路运输投资决策两步优化模型

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摘要

A new methodology is introduced for project selection that explicitly addresses issues of achieving maximized overall project benefits by selecting a subcollection of candidate projects for possible implementation at a given budget level while controlling the total risk of the expected project benefits within an acceptable lower bound. The covariance value is utilized to denote the risk of the expected benefits of jointly implementing two projects, in which each project maintains a range of possible benefits and a probability distribution. The summation of all covariance values corresponding to all possible project implementation combinations represents the total risk of the expected benefits. The methodology contains two-step optimizations. First, the Markowitz mean-variance model is employed to establish the lower-bound risk of project benefits for a given budget level. Second, the conventionally accepted zero/one knapsack model for project selection is augmented to incorporate the lower-bound risk established from the first-step optimization as one additional chance constraint. In this way, the overall benefits of projects selected for implementation are maximized while controlling the total risk of the expected project benefits within a lower bound for a certain percentage of time. The proposed model is applied for a 6-year statewide interstate highway project selection and programming. Cross comparisons are made in the consistencies of project selection results generated from the basic knapsack model, proposed two-step enhanced knapsack model, and current state highway programming practice.
机译：引入了一种用于项目选择的新方法，该方法通过选择候选项目的子集以在给定的预算水平下可能执行，同时将预期项目收益的总风险控制在可接受的下限内，从而明确解决了实现整体项目收益最大化的问题。协方差值用于表示联合实施两个项目的预期收益的风险，其中每个项目都维护一定范围的可能收益和概率分布。与所有可能的项目实施组合相对应的所有协方差值的总和表示预期收益的总风险。该方法包含两步优化。首先，使用Markowitz均方差模型来确定给定预算水平下项目收益的下限风险。其次，增强了用于项目选择的常规接受的零/一个背包模型，以结合从第一步优化中建立的下限风险作为一个附加的机会约束。通过这种方式，可以最大限度地选择要实施的项目的整体收益，同时将预期的项目收益的总风险控制在一定百分比的下限内。提出的模型适用于为期6年的州际州际公路项目的选择和编程。通过基本背包模型，提议的两步增强背包模型和当前状态的公路规划实践生成的项目选择结果的一致性进行交叉比较。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Journal of Transportation Engineering》 |2014年第5期|04014007.1-04014007.10|共10页
  • 作者

    Bei Zhou; Zongzhi Li; Harshingar Patel; Arash M. Roshandeh; Yuanqing Wang;

  • 作者单位

    Dept. of Traffic Engineering, Chang'an Univ., Xi'an 710064, P. R. China;

    Dept. of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL 60616;

    Dept. of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL 60616;

    School of Civil Engineering, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN 47906;

    Dept. of Traffic Engineering, Chang'an Univ., Xi'an 710064, P. R. China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Portfolio; Investment; Risk; Decision-making; Knapsack;

    机译：投资组合;投资;风险;做决定;背包;

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