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Application of statistical interpretation techniques With nwp products for objective forecasting of Tropical cyclone motion

机译：统计解释技术和nwp产品在热带气旋运动客观预报中的应用

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摘要

Statistical study is first performed of the efficiency of the technique of statistical interpretation using the products of NWP. The results shows that the application of the technique has improved the predictability of pre- dictors in objective forecasting of tropical cyclone motion, increased the forecasting skill of models and extended the valid period of forecast. Then a discussion is made of some technical problems in the application in the mo- tion forecasting, suggesting: a large sample of data and perfect forecast method be employed in constructing objective forecast models for tropical cyclone motion, predictors be included that are so finely built that they reflect all synoptic features and physical quantity fields and NWP products be used and corrected that are avail- able at multiple times. It is some of the effective ways to improve the skill and stability of the forecast by composite use of outcomefs from various forecasting models.
机译：首先使用NWP产品对统计解释技术的效率进行统计研究。结果表明，该技术的应用提高了预报员在热带气旋运动客观预报中的可预报性，提高了模型的预报技巧，延长了预报的有效期。然后讨论了在运动预报中的一些技术问题，并提出了建议：建立热带气旋运动的客观预报模型时，要使用大量的数据样本和完善的预报方法，要包括如此精确的预报器它们反映了所有天气特征和物理量字段，并且多次使用和纠正了NWP产品。通过综合使用各种预测模型中的输出结果，这是提高预测技巧和稳定性的一些有效方法。

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