...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society >WGNE Intercomparison of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts by Operational NWP Models: A Quarter Century and Beyond
【24h】

WGNE Intercomparison of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts by Operational NWP Models: A Quarter Century and Beyond

机译：运营NWP模型的热带旋风预测的WGNE互相：四分之一世纪及以后

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts of operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been compared and verified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) under an intercomparison project of the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) since 1991. This intercomparison has promoted validation of the global models in the tropics and subtropics. The results have demonstrated a steady increase in the global models' ability to predict TC positions over the past quarter century.The intercomparison study started from verification for TCs in the western North Pacific basin with three global models. Up to the present date, the verification has been extended to all ocean basins where TCs regularly occur, and 12 global models participated in the project. In recent years, the project has been extended to include verification of intensity forecasts and forecasts by regional models.This intercomparison project has seen a significant improvement in TC track forecasts, both globally and in each TC basin. In the western North Pacific, for example, we have succeeded in obtaining an approximately 2.5-day lead-time improvement. The project has also demonstrated the benefits of multicenter track forecasts (i.e., consensus forecasts). Finally, the paper considers future challenges to TC track forecasting by NWP models that have been identified at the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO's) Eighth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-8). We discuss the priorities and key issues in further improving the accuracy of TC track forecasts, reducing cases of large position errors, and enhancing the use of ensemble information.
机译：在自1991年以来，在数值实验（WGNE）工作组的相互比较项目下，对运营数值天气预测（JMA）进行了比较和验证了热带气旋（TC）轨道预测。验证热带和副数据中的全球模型。结果表明，全球模型在过去四分之一世纪预测TC职位的能力稳步增加。近乎太平洋盆地与三个全球模型的核查开始。截至目前，验证已扩展到所有海洋盆地，其中定期发生TC，12个全球型号参与该项目。近年来，该项目已扩展到包括区域模型的强度预测和预测的核实。这项综合法项目在全球和每个TC盆地的TC跟踪预测中有重大改进。例如，在西北太平洋，我们成功获得了大约2.5天的延期时间改进。该项目还展示了多中心轨道预测的益处（即，共识预测）。最后，本文考虑了在世界气象组织（WMO）第八届热带气旋（IWTC-8）的第八届国际研讨会上识别的NWP模型对TC跟踪预测的未来挑战。我们讨论了进一步提高了TC跟踪预测的准确性，减少了大位置误差案例的优先事项和关键问题，增强了合奏信息的使用。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号