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Tephra hazard assessment at Concepcion Volcano, Nicaragua

机译：尼加拉瓜康塞普西翁火山的特非拉危险评估

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摘要

Concepcion volcano in Ometepe Island, Nicaragua, is a highly active volcano with a rich historical record of explosive eruptions. Tephra fallout from Concepcion jeopardizes the surrounding populations, whereas volcanic ash clouds threat aerial navigation at a regional level. The assessment of these hazards is important for territorial planning and adoption of mitigation measures. Here we compute probabilistic hazard maps for Concepcion volcano considering three different eruptive scenarios based on past reference events. Previous geological analysis is used to quantify the eruption parameters of the reference events. We account for uncertainties in the definition of the scenarios trough probability density functions. A representative meteorological dataset is created for each scenario by running the WRF-ARW mesoscale meteorological model over a typical meteorological year, defined in terms of wind speed and direction at a given atmospheric height. Tephra transport and deposition under different eruption and wind conditions is modelled using the FALL3D dispersion model. For each scenario, simulations are combined to build probabilistic hazard maps for critical values of tephra load and for threshold values of airborne ash concentration at relevant flight levels. Results are useful to identify the expected impacts for each eruption type and aim at improving the assessment and management of risk in the region.
机译：尼加拉瓜奥梅特佩岛的康塞普西翁火山是一座高度活跃的火山，具有丰富的爆炸爆发历史记录。康塞普西翁（Concepcion）的提弗拉（Tephra）尘埃危害周围的居民，而火山灰云则威胁着区域一级的空中航行。对这些危害的评估对于领土规划和采取缓解措施很重要。在这里，我们基于过去的参考事件，考虑了三种不同的爆发情景，计算了康塞普西翁火山的概率危险图。先前的地质分析用于量化参考事件的喷发参数。我们在通过概率密度函数的方案定义中考虑了不确定性。通过在典型的气象年中运行WRF-ARW中尺度气象模型为每种情况创建一个代表性的气象数据集，该模型由给定大气高度的风速和风向定义。使用FALL3D弥散模型对在不同喷发和风况下的Tephra运移和沉积进行建模。对于每种情况，都将模拟结合起来，以建立有关特非拉载荷临界值和相关飞行水平上机载灰分浓度阈值的概率危险图。结果有助于确定每种喷发类型的预期影响，并旨在改善对该区域的风险评估和管理。

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