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首页> 外文期刊>Natural hazards and earth system sciences >A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes - Part 1:Hazard assessment
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A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes - Part 1:Hazard assessment

机译：多份冰岛火山中的特发拉尘沉降和空气中浓度的多尺度风险评估-第1部分：危险性评估

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In order to assist the elaboration of proactive measures for the management of future volcanic eruptions in Iceland, we developed a new scenario-based approach to assess the hazard associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation at various scales and for multiple sources. The target volcanoes are Hekla, Katla, Eyjafjallaj?kull and Askja, selected either for their high probabilities of eruption and/or their high potential impact. By coupling tephrostratigraphic studies, probabilistic techniques and modelling, we developed comprehensive eruption scenarios for both short- and long-lasting eruptions and compiled hazard maps for tephra ground deposition at a national scale and air concentration at a European scale using the TEPHRA2 and FALL3D models, respectively. New algorithms for the identification of realistic sets of eruptive source parameters are investigated, which assist the generation of probability density functions of eruption source parameters for the selected scenarios. Aggregation processes were accounted for using various empirical models. Outcomes, i.e. probabilities conditioned to the occurrence of an eruption, help the assessment and comparison of hazard levels at different scales. For example, at a national scale Askja has a 5-10% probability of blanketing the easternmost half of the country with a tephra accumulation of at least 1 kgm~(-2). At a continental scale, Katla has a 5-10% probability of producing ash clouds with concentrations of 2 mgm~(-3) over the UK, Scandinavia and northern Europe with a mean arrival time of 48-72 h and a mean persistence time of 6-18 h. In a companion paper, Scaini et al. (2014) present a vulnerability assessment for Iceland to ground deposition of tephra and for the European air traffic to airborne ash which, combined with the outcomes of the present paper, constitute one of the first comprehensive multi-scale risk assessment associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation.
机译：为了协助制定积极措施来管理冰岛未来的火山喷发，我们开发了一种新的基于情景的方法，以评估与规模和多种来源的提菲拉扩散和沉积相关的危害。目标火山是Hekla，Katla，Eyjafjallaj？kull和Askja，因其高喷发概率和/或高潜在影响而选择。通过结合岩相地层学研究，概率技术和建模，我们使用TEPHRA2和FALL3D模型开发了针对短时和持久喷发的综合喷发方案，并在全国范围内编制了全国范围内的泰夫拉地面沉积和欧洲范围内的空气浓度的危害图，分别。研究了用于识别逼真的喷发源参数集的新算法，该算法有助于为选定的场景生成喷发源参数的概率密度函数。使用各种经验模型说明了聚集过程。结果，即以爆发的发生为条件的概率，有助于评估和比较不同级别的危害水平。例如，在全国范围内，Askja有5-10％的概率覆盖了至少1 kgm〜（-2）的非洲菊科植物。在大陆范围内，卡特拉地区在英国，斯堪的纳维亚半岛和北欧地区产生灰云的可能性为5-10％，其浓度为2 mgm〜（-3），平均到达时间为48-72小时，平均持续时间为6-18小时。在同伴论文中，Scaini等人。 （2014年）提出了冰岛对特非拉的地面沉积的脆弱性评估以及对欧洲向空中传播的灰烬的空中交通运输的脆弱性评估，该评估与本论文的结果相结合，构成了第一个与特非拉扩散和相关的综合多尺度风险评估之一。沉降。

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