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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research >Reconstruction And Analysis Of Sub-plinian Tephra Dispersal Duringthe 1530 A.d. Soufriere (guadeloupe) Eruption: Implications for Scenario Definition And Hazards Assessment
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Reconstruction And Analysis Of Sub-plinian Tephra Dispersal Duringthe 1530 A.d. Soufriere (guadeloupe) Eruption: Implications for Scenario Definition And Hazards Assessment

机译：1530年a.d. Soufriere（瓜德罗普岛）爆发：对方案定义和危害评估的影响

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摘要

The last magmatic eruption of Soufriere of Guadeloupe dated at 1530 A.D. (Soufriere eruption) is characterized by an onset with a partial flank-collapse and emplacement of a debris-avalanche that was followed by a sub-plinian VEI 2-3 explosive short-lived eruption (Phase-1) with a column that reached a height between 9 and 12 km producing about 3.9 ×10~6 m~3 DRE (16.3 × 10~6 m~3 bulk) of juvenile products. The column recurrently collapsed generating scoriaceous pyroclastic flows in radiating valleys up to a distance of 5-6 km with a maximum interpolated bulk deposit volume of 11.7 × 10~6 m~3 (5 × 10~6 m~3 DRE). We have used HAZMAP, a numerical simple first-order model of tephra dispersal [Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. A computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31, 837-845] to reconstruct to a first approximation the potential dispersal of tephra and associated tephra mass loadings generated by the sub-plinian Phase 1 of the 1530 A.D. eruption. We have tested our model on a deterministic average dry season wind profile that best-fits the available data as well as on a set of randomly selected wind profiles over a 5 year interval that allows the elaboration of probabilistic maps for the exceedance of specific tephra mass load thresholds. Results show that in the hypothesis of a future 1530 A.D. scenario, populated areas to a distance of 3-4 km west-southwest of the vent could be subjected to a static load pressure between 2 and 10 kPa in case of wet tephra, susceptible to cause variable degrees of roof damage. Our results provide volcanological input parameters for scenario and event-tree definition, for assessing volcanic risks and evaluating their impact in case of a future sub-plinian eruption which could affect up to 70 000 people in southern Basse-Terre island and the region. They also provide a framework to aid decision-making concerning land management and development. A sub-plinian eruption is the most likely magmatic scenario in case of a future eruption of this volcano which has shown, since 1992, increasing signs of low-energy seismic, thermal, and acid degassing unrest without significant deformation.
机译：瓜德罗普岛Soufriere的最后一次岩浆喷发发生于公元1530年（Soufriere喷发），其特征是起初有部分侧翼塌陷和碎屑雪崩，随后是次普林期VEI 2-3爆炸性短暂生命喷发（阶段1），其高度达到9至12 km，产生约3.9×10〜6 m〜3 DRE（16.3×10〜6 m〜3散装）的少年产品。柱状体反复塌陷，在辐射谷中形成针状火山碎屑流，流向距离达5-6 km，最大内插散装体体积为11.7×10〜6 m〜3（5×10〜6 m〜3 DRE）。我们已经使用了HAZMAP，这是一种简单的数值数据，包括特非拉扩散的一阶模型[Macedonio，G.，Costa，A.，Longo，A.，2005。一种用于火山灰沉降和后续危害评估的计算机模型。计算Geosci。 31，837-845]重建到第一个近似值，即由1530 A.D.喷发亚次古陆阶段1产生的特非拉的潜在扩散和相关的特非拉质量载荷。我们在确定性的平均旱季风廓线（最能拟合可用数据）以及一组随机选择的风廓线（在5年的时间间隔内）上测试了我们的模型，从而可以绘制出超过特定的特菲拉质量的概率图负载阈值。结果表明，在未来1530年的情景假设中，如果是湿的麻风，则在通风口西南偏西南3-4公里处的人口稠密地区可能会承受2到10 kPa的静态负荷压力。造成不同程度的屋顶损坏。我们的结果为情景和事件树定义提供了火山学输入参数，用于评估火山风险并评估未来亚平山喷发的影响，这可能会影响巴瑟-特雷岛南部和该地区多达7万人。它们还提供了一个框架，以帮助有关土地管理和开发的决策。在未来火山喷发的情况下，亚平山喷发是最有可能发生的岩浆情境，自1992年以来，火山喷发显示出低能地震，热力和酸气脱气的迹象不断增加，而没有明显变形。

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