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Assessing the impacts of changing climate and human activities on streamflow in the Hotan River, China

机译:评估气候和人类活动变化对中国Hotan River的流出的影响

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Climate change and intensified human activities are regarded as the two driving factors for most river systems having lost their connection with the Tarim River. The Hotan River is the second largest headstream of the Tarim River; therefore, it is important to determine the causes of its reduction in streamflow supply. Based on an analysis of changes in hydro-meteorological regime and the effects of direct human activities on streamflow, their contributions to the decrease in streamflow in different periods (natural period, 1964–1988; transition period, 1989–2002; post-transition period, 2003–2012) from the Hotan River to the Tarim River were quantified based on a double-mass curve of inflow and outflow in the Hotan River Basin. The results indicate that climatic changes reduced streamflow during the transition period yet increased streamflow during the post-transition period. Human activities reduced output by 73% in the transition period and by 127% in the post-transition period, which was significantly stronger than the contribution from the climate. Thus, human activities appear to be the main driving factor for the drop in streamflow from the Hotan River into the Tarim River. These results can be used as a reference for water resource planning and management.
机译:气候变化和加强人类活动被视为大多数河流系统的两个驱动因素,该因素与塔里木河有关的大多数河流系统。 Hotan River是塔里木河的第二大河流;因此,确定其减少流流量的原因是重要的。基于对水流气象制度变化的分析以及直接人类活动对流流的影响,它们对不同时期的流出减少的贡献(自然时期,1964-1988;过渡期,1989-2002;过渡后期,2003-2012)从Hotan河到塔里木河的量化基于Hotan River盆地的流入和流出的双重曲线量化。结果表明,在过渡期间,在过渡时段期间,气候变化降低了流出流出的流出。在过渡期内,人类活动将产量减少73%,后转换后期的127%明显强于气候贡献。因此,人类的活动似乎是来自Hotan河流进入塔里木河的流出流动的主要驱动因素。这些结果可作为水资源规划和管理的参考。

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