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Damage of extreme water levels and the adaptation cost of dikes in the Pearl River Delta

机译：珠江三角洲堤防堤坝局部水平损害及堤坝适应成本

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摘要

Many of the world's largest coastal cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to extreme events due to their growing populations and infrastructure, the changing climate, and subsidence. This paper assessed the economic impacts of extreme climatic events including sea-level rise and storm surge risk and the benefits of the adaptation strategies in the Pearl River Delta, a lowing-lying area located in southern China. An economic benefit-cost model was established for the estimation of the impacts and benefits. The damage of the extreme events was calculated using the damage rate modeled from the historic disaster database, and then the difference between the damage and the cost of heightening dikes was investigated under different scenarios. The results showed that the damage rate and storm surge level were positively related. The adaptation strategies benefited when the dike was heightened by 1.43-12.67 m, with the optimum reached at 5.15 m, and the dike did not exceed 12.67 m. The maximum benefits were obtained when the dike was designed to defend a 20-year return period storm surge in 2100, and the minimum when the dike is heightened to defend a 100-year return period storm surge in 2100.
机译：由于越来越多的人口和基础设施，变化的气候和沉降，许多世界上最大的沿海城市的许多最大的沿海城市越来越容易受到极端事件。本文评估了极端气候事件的经济影响，包括海平面上升和风暴浪涌风险，以及珠江三角洲的适应策略，位于中国南部的低洼地区。建立了经济效益成本模型，用于估计影响和福利。使用从历史灾难数据库中建模的损伤计算来计算极端事件的损害，然后在不同场景下调查了损坏与提升堤坝成本之间的差异。结果表明，损害率和风暴浪涌水平正相关。当堤防加强1.43-12.67米时，适应策略受益，最佳达到5.15米，堤防不超过12.67米。当堤防旨在在2100年捍卫20年的回报期风暴浪涌时获得的最大效益，最低堤防预期抵御2100年的100年回报期风暴浪涌。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of water and climate change》 |2020年第3期|829-838|共10页
  • 作者

    He Lei; Li Guosheng; Li Kuo; Zhang Yue; Guo Tengjiao;

  • 作者单位

    Jiangxi Normal Univ Sch Geog & Environm Minist Educ Key Lab Poyang Lake Wetland & Watershed Res Nanchang Jiangxi Peoples R China;

    Chinese Acad Sci Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat Beijing Peoples R China;

    Chinese Acad Agr Sci Inst Environm & Sustainable Dev Agr Beijing Peoples R China;

    Chinese Acad Sci Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat Beijing Peoples R China;

    Chinese Acad Sci Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat Beijing Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    adaptation cost; extreme events; Pearl River Delta; sea-level rise; storm surge;

    机译：适应成本;极端事件;珠江三角洲;海平面上升;风暴浪涌;

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