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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Wine Economics >Auction-Price Dynamics for Fine Wines from Age-Period-Cohort Models*
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Auction-Price Dynamics for Fine Wines from Age-Period-Cohort Models*

机译：年龄段同期模型的优质葡萄酒拍卖价格动态*

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摘要

In an attempt to expand the understanding of auction-price dynamics for fine wines, an age-period-cohort (APC) algorithm is applied to a database of 1.5 million auction results to quantify key drivers of these price dynamics. APC algorithms are designed to separate price appreciation with the age of the wine from overall wine-market conditions as well as to adjust for the unique value of specific vintages. In this context, the APC modeling provides a kind of Hedonic modeling, with specific controls regarding specification errors. The analysis was segmented by Chateau Lafite Rothschild, Bordeaux excluding Lafite, and Burgundy so that we could test specific events related to Chateau Lafite Rothschild. The results show price dynamics versus the ages of the wines and allow for the measurement of long-term price-appreciation potential. Environment functions versus auction dates quantify the "Lafite Bubble" and suggest past correlation to Chinese stock-market indices. An analysis of wine ratings versus price quantifies their nonlinear relationship. An analysis across nine auction houses shows a significant price spread for similar wines.
机译：为了扩大对优质葡萄酒拍卖价格动态的理解，将年龄周期队列（APC）算法应用于150万拍卖结果的数据库，以量化这些价格动态的关键驱动因素。 APC算法的设计目的是将酒龄的价格升值与整个葡萄酒市场的状况分开，并根据特定年份的独特价值进行调整。在这种情况下，APC建模提供了一种Hedonic建模，并带有有关规范错误的特定控件。该分析由Chateau Lafite Rothschild，波尔多（不包括Lafite）和勃艮第进行了细分，以便我们可以测试与Chateau Lafite Rothschild有关的特定事件。结果显示了价格随酒龄的变化，并可以衡量长期的价格升值潜力。环境函数与拍卖日期之间的关系量化了“拉菲泡沫”，并暗示了过去与中国股市指数的相关性。对葡萄酒评级与价格的对比分析量化了它们的非线性关系。对九家拍卖行的分析显示，类似葡萄酒的价格差异很大。

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