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Forecasting and assessing the impact of urban sprawl in coastal watersheds along eastern Lake Michigan

机译：预测和评估密歇根湖东部沿海流域的城市扩张影响

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The Land Transformation Model (LTM), which has been developed to forecast urban-use changes in a grid-based geographical information system, was used to explore the consequences of future urban changes to the years 2020 and 2040 using non-urban sprawl and urban-sprawl trends. The model was executed over a large area containing nine of the major coastal watersheds of eastern Lake Michigan. We found that the Black-Macatawa and Lower Grand watersheds will experience the most urban change in the next 20-40 years. These changes will likely impact the hydrological budget, might reduce the amount of nitrogen exported to these watersheds, result in a significant loss of prime agricultural land and reduce the amount of forest cover along the streams in many of these watersheds. The results of this work have significant implications to the Lake Michigan Lake Area Management Plan (LaMP) that was recently developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency.
机译：土地转化模型（LTM）已开发出来，用于预测基于网格的地理信息系统中的城市使用变化，并利用非城市扩张和城市化来探索未来城市变化对2020年和2040年的影响蔓延趋势。该模型在包含密歇根湖东部九个主要沿海分水岭的大区域上执行。我们发现，黑玛卡塔瓦流域和下格兰德流域将在未来20至40年内经历最多的城市变化。这些变化可能会影响水文预算，可能减少向这些流域输出的氮量，导致大量主要农业土地流失，并减少许多流域沿河的森林覆盖率。这项工作的结果对美国环境保护署最近制定的密歇根湖湖区管理计划（LaMP）具有重要意义。

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