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Prediction of Lake Baikal ecosystem behaviour using an ecosystem disturbance model

机译：基于生态系统扰动模型的贝加尔湖生态系统行为预测

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This paper combines predictions of the effects of anthropogenic impacts on the plankton of Lake Baikal with models of ecosystem disturbance. Increases in mineralization, non-toxic organic matter, nutrients, phenolic compounds, oil products and heavy metals were simulated. Significantly higher sensitivity of the community below the ice to external influences was demonstrated compared to the summer–autumn community, when there was no ice layer. Models of the distribution of aquatic pollutants demonstrate the occurrence of deviations from ecosystem state parameters in the bottom layer under the influence of pollutant input with precipitation and the distribution of perturbations over greater (up to 500 km) distances. Simulation of pollutant input at present levels shows that Lake Baikal is already perturbed. This is indicated by increases in bacterial and summer phytoplankton biomass and nutrient concentration, and by fluctuations in the zooplankton biomass.
机译：本文将对人为影响贝加尔湖浮游生物影响的预测与生态系统扰动模型相结合。模拟了矿化，无毒有机物，养分，酚类化合物，石油产品和重金属的增加。与没有秋季冰层的夏秋群落相比，冰下群落对外部影响的敏感性显着提高。水生污染物的分布模型表明，在污染物输入与降雨的影响下，以及在更大（最大500 km）距离内扰动的分布影响下，底层生态系统状态参数发生了偏差。对目前水平的污染物输入进行模拟显示，贝加尔湖已经受到干扰。细菌和夏季浮游生物量和养分浓度的增加，以及浮游生物量的波动都表明了这一点。

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