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首页> 外文期刊>Macroeconomic dynamics >THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY IN AN ESTIMATED DSGE MODEL—THE CASE OF THE GERMAN STIMULUS PACKAGES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
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THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY IN AN ESTIMATED DSGE MODEL—THE CASE OF THE GERMAN STIMULUS PACKAGES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION

机译：财政政策在估计的DSGE模型中的影响 - 德国刺激包裹在巨大经济衰退期间

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摘要

In this paper, we analyze the effects of the stimulus packages adopted by the German government during the Great Recession. We employ a standard medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model extended by non-optimizing households and a detailed fiscal sector. In particular, the dynamics of spending and revenue variables are modeled as feedback rules with respect to the cyclical components of output, hours worked and private investment. Based on the estimated rules, fiscal shocks are identified. According to the results, fiscal policy, in particular public consumption, investment, and transfers prevented a sharper and prolonged decline of German output at the beginning of the Great Recession, suggesting a timely response of fiscal policy. The overall effects, however, are small when compared to other domestic and international shocks that contributed to the economic downturn. Our overall findings are not sensitive to considering fiscal foresight.
机译：在本文中，我们分析了德国政府在巨大经济衰退期间采用的刺激计划的影响。我们采用了不优化家庭和详细的财政部门延伸的标准中型动态随机均衡（DSGE）模型。特别是，支出和收入变量的动态被建模为关于输出的周期性分量，工作时间和私人投资的反馈规则。根据估计规则，确定了财政冲击。根据结果​​，财政政策，特别是公共消费，投资和转移，阻止了巨额经济衰退开始时德国产量的更尖锐，延长了德国产量，这表明财政政策及时回应。然而，与其他有助于经济衰退的国内和国际冲击相比，整体效果很小。我们的整体调查结果对考虑财政认证来说并不敏感。

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