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PERSISTENT DEFICIT, GROWTH,AND INDETERMINACY

机译：持续的赤字，增长和不确定性

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摘要

In this paper, we look for long-run and short-run effects of fiscal deficits on economic growth in an endogenous growth model with productive public spending that may be financed by public deficit and debt. The model shows a multiplicity of long-run balanced growth paths (a high-growth and a low-growth steady state) and a possible indeterminacy of the transition path, which may be consistent with the empirical literature, which exhibits strong nonlinear responses of economic growth to fiscal deficits. Starting from the high-growth steady state, a positive impulse in the deficit ratio exerts an adverse effect on economic growth in the long run, after an initial rise. Starting from the low-growth steady state, the situation may be radically undetermined, and the effect of fiscal deficit impulses is subjected to "optimistic" or "pessimistic" views on public-debt sustainability.
机译：在本文中，我们在具有生产性公共支出的内生增长模型中寻找财政赤字对经济增长的长期和短期影响，这些支出可能由公共赤字和债务提供资金。该模型显示了多种长期均衡增长路径（高增长和低增长稳态）以及过渡路径的不确定性，这可能与经验文献一致，该文献显示了强烈的经济非线性响应。增长到财政赤字。从高增长的稳定状态开始，赤字比率的正冲动在最初上升之后，从长远来看对经济增长产生不利影响。从低增长的稳态开始，情况可能根本无法确定，财政赤字冲动的影响受到对公共债务可持续性的“乐观”或“悲观”观点的影响。

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