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UNREALISTIC OPTIMISM Unrealistic optimism: what it is and how to deal with it

机译：不现实的乐观主义不现实的乐观主义：它是什么以及如何应对

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Purpose - Unrealistic optimism is a well-documented psychological phenomenon. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the meaning of being "unrealistically optimistic". This bias has important implications in many economic and managerial contexts and the authors present evidence of it. Although the policy and welfare implications of such a widespread phenomenon are vast, they have been largely neglected by policy makers. The authors propose conservative paternalistic measures. Design/methodology/approach - Critical review of existing literature on Unrealistic Optimism. Analyses of some relevant variables of the mortgage and corporate credit markets in Portugal and Spain.Findings - The authors point to evidence and argue that Unrealistic Optimism may well have been at play in the recent behaviour of mortgage and corporate credit markets in Portugal and Spain. Practical implications - Because ignoring such biases may simply lead borrowers and financial institutions down a real road to ruin, it is important to discuss paternalistic policies that may mitigate them. The paper therefore presents a conservative approach to paternalistic measures that policy makers should consider adopting.Originality/value - The paper shows the link between irrational behaviour and mortgage and corporate credit markets in Portugal and Spain and suggests paternalistic policies that should be encouraged.
机译：目的-不切实际的乐观情绪是有据可查的心理现象。本文的目的是讨论“不切实际的乐观”的含义。这种偏见在许多经济和管理环境中具有重要意义，作者提供了证明。尽管这种普遍现象对政策和福利的影响是巨大的，但政策制定者基本上忽略了它们。作者提出了保守的家长式措施。设计/方法/方法-对不现实的乐观主义的现有文献进行严格的评论。分析-葡萄牙和西班牙抵押贷款和企业信贷市场的一些相关变量。发现-作者指出了证据，并指出，不现实的乐观情绪很可能已经在葡萄牙和西班牙的抵押贷款和企业信贷市场的近期行为中发挥了作用。实际意义-由于忽略此类偏见可能只会导致借款人和金融机构走上一条真正的破产之路，因此，讨论可能减轻其影响的家长式政策非常重要。因此，本文提出了决策者应该考虑采用的保守的家长式措施。原创性/价值-本文显示了葡萄牙和西班牙的非理性行为与抵押和企业信贷市场之间的联系，并提出了应鼓励家长式政策的建议。

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