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Fiscal Multipliers for India

机译:印度的财政乘数

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摘要

This article attempts to present a framework for the estimation of fiscal multipliers for the Indian economy in the structural macroeconomic modelling tradition. Empirical estimates of short-run multipliers are obtained by giving shocks to a range of fiscal instruments-expenditures and taxes. As per our estimates, the values of the capital expenditure multiplier, transfer payments multiplier and other revenue expenditure multiplier are 2.45, 0.98 and 0.99, respectively, while the tax multipliers are around -1. Expenditure multipliers were also obtained in the presence of fiscal consolidation targets. These estimates again point to the strong multiplier effect of capital expenditure on output, and underscore the need to prioritise capital expenditure.
机译:本文试图以结构化宏观经济建模传统为基础,为印度经济的财政乘数估算提供一个框架。短期乘数的经验估计是通过使一系列财政工具,支出和税收受到冲击而获得的。根据我们的估计,资本支出乘数,转移支付乘数和其他收入支出乘数的值分别为2.45、0.98和0.99,而税收乘数约为-1。在存在财政整顿目标的情况下,也获得了支出乘数。这些估计再次表明资本支出对产出的强大乘数效应,并强调了对资本支出进行优先排序的必要性。

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