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首页> 外文期刊>Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research >A General Equilibrium Analysis of the TPP Free Trade Agreement With and Without China
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A General Equilibrium Analysis of the TPP Free Trade Agreement With and Without China

机译：有和没有中国的TPP自由贸易协定的一般均衡分析

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摘要

The approaching tenth year of the Doha Round with no achievements to celebrate indicates a failure of the World Trade Organization. Formal negotiations of the Round expired in 2005 without reaching a consensus, and informal negotiations were stalled in 2008. Thus, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a recent initiative to deepen trade relations among countries bordering the Pacific was greeted with applause and relief as a step in the right direction. This article discusses the region-wide Free Trade Agreement series of linked agreements that cover various members and issues. The recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model simulates two scenarios against the baseline, namely, a TPP agreement with China and without China. The preliminary results show that the TPP agreement without China cannot change the significant roles of markets and geography as the principal factors behind the economic integration of Southeast Asia with China. Trade and investment agreements facilitate market forces, they do not oppose them. The integration of the Asia-Pacific countries may benefit the US and other key economies.
机译：多哈回合即将举行的第十年，没有值得庆祝的成就，表明世界贸易组织的失败。该回合的正式谈判在2005年到期，没有达成共识，非正式谈判在2008年停顿。因此，泛太平洋伙伴关系（TPP）是最近加深与太平洋沿岸国家之间贸易关系的一项举措，受到了掌声和救济。作为朝着正确方向迈出的一步。本文讨论了涵盖各个成员和问题的一系列区域性自由贸易协议。递归动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型针对基准模拟了两种情况，即与中国和不与中国的TPP协议。初步结果表明，没有中国的TPP协议不能改变市场和地理的重要作用，而市场和地理是东南亚与中国经济一体化的主要因素。贸易和投资协定有利于市场力量，但它们并不反对。亚太国家的一体化可能会使美国和其他主要经济体受益。

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