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Echoes of numerical dependence: responses of wintering waterbirds to Pacific herring spawns

机译:数值依赖性的回声:越冬的水鸟对太平洋鲱鱼产卵的反应

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We investigated the ecological importance of Pacific herring Clupea pallasii spawning activity to wintering waterbird numbers in Tomales Bay, California, USA. Time-series analyses were used to assess the potential dependence of future waterbird abundances on current changes in herring spawning biomass, independent of underlying trends or other dynamics in waterbird numbers or herring activity. Forecasts of winter waterbird abundance were significantly improved by considering the lagged effects of changes in herring spawning biomass. Impulse-response functions provided strong evidence that the dynamics of winter waterbird abundances include 'echoes' of response over time to any unusual pulse of herring activity, with carryover effects leading to sustained increases in waterbird species' abundances over multiple years, and increases in the abundance of all waterbird species (combined) over the subsequent 3 winters. Increases in waterbird abundance consistent with variance-prone responses to the pulsed availability of prey were sustained by periods of conditional variance-aversion associated with subsequent declines in herring spawning biomass to expected long-term levels. Annual spawning activity was highly variable, and when the availability of roe was relatively high, the potential consumption of herring eggs could account for up to 64% of the collective energy needs of waterbirds (all species combined) over the 90 d herring season (mean +/- SE = 20 +/- 3.6%). Several waterbird species shifted their bay distributions in response to herring spawning events within 2 d; however, some species that did not concentrate in spawning areas exhibited sustained annual increases in bay-wide winter abundance in response to increased herring spawning biomass.
机译:我们调查了太平洋鲱鱼Clupea pallasii产卵活动对美国加利福尼亚托马斯湾越冬水鸟数量的生态重要性。时间序列分析用于评估未来水鸟丰度对鲱鱼产卵生物量当前变化的潜在依赖性,而与水鸟数量或鲱鱼活动的潜在趋势或其他动态无关。考虑到鲱鱼产卵量变化的滞后效应,冬季水鸟丰度的预测得到了显着改善。冲动响应功能提供了有力的证据,证明冬季水鸟丰度的动态包括随着时间的推移,对任何异常鲱鱼活动的响应的“回声”,其结转效应导致水鸟物种的丰度在多年内持续增加,并在一定程度上增加。在随后的3个冬季中,所有水鸟物种(组合)的数量丰富。水鸟丰度的增加与对脉冲猎物可用性的易变方差反应相一致,这是通过条件方差-厌恶期和鲱鱼产卵量随后下降至预期的长期水平相关的。每年的产卵活动变化很大,当卵的可用率较高时,在90 d鲱鱼季节(平均)中,鲱鱼卵的潜在消耗量可占水鸟(所有物种的总和)集体能量需求的64%。 +/- SE = 20 +/- 3.6%)。响应于2天内的鲱鱼产卵事件,几种水鸟物种改变了其海湾分布。然而,由于鲱鱼产卵量的增加,一些不集中在产卵区的物种在海湾范围内的冬季丰度每年持续增长。

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