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Phenological shifts in hatch timing of northern shrimp Pandalus borealis

机译：北方虾对虾孵化期的物候变化

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The northern shrimp Pandalus borealis reaches the southern limit of its distribution in the Gulf of Maine, USA. Previous studies have revealed geographic clines in northern shrimp population parameters (growth, maturity, longevity) which co-vary with environmental temperature, and laboratory studies have confirmed temperature effects. In this study, field data were used to investigate reproductive phenology of northern shrimp in the Gulf of Maine during 1980 to 2011 in relation to ocean temperatures. Timing of the annual shrimp hatch was estimated by sampling commercial catches during the brooding and hatching period. Hatch timing metrics were regressed against composite environmental variables derived from principal component analysis of sea surface temperature and bottom temperature anomalies. Shrimp population indices (spawner abundance and mean size) were included as covariates. Shifts have occurred in timing of hatch initiation (earlier) and completion (later), with the overall result of a longer hatch period in recent years. The midpoint of the hatch period has varied without trend. All hatch timing metrics were significantly related to temperature variables, several of which have warmed significantly during the study period. In the short term, phenological shifts in hatch timing of northern shrimp may be beneficial because they effectively increase the window of opportunity for larvae to encounter good survival conditions. The continued warming predicted for the Gulf of Maine will likely produce further changes, some of which may be in unexpected directions.
机译：北部虾北极虾在美国缅因湾达到其分布的南部极限。先前的研究已经揭示了北部虾种群参数（生长，成熟度，寿命）的地理变化，其随环境温度的变化而变化，实验室研究已经证实了温度的影响。在这项研究中，田间数据用于调查1980年至2011年缅因湾北部虾的生殖物候与海洋温度的关系。每年虾的孵化时间是通过在育雏和孵化期间对商业捕捞进行采样来估算的。孵化场的时间指标针对从海面温度和底部温度异常的主成分分析得出的复合环境变量进行了回归。虾种群指数（产卵量和平均大小）作为协变量包括在内。孵化开始（较早）和完成（较晚）的时间发生了变化，总体而言，近年来孵化期较长。孵化期的中点变化无趋势。所有孵化时间指标均与温度变量显着相关，其中一些在研究期间已显着升温。在短期内，北方虾孵化时机的物候变化可能是有益的，因为它们有效地增加了幼虫遇到良好生存条件的机会之窗。缅因湾的持续升温预计将产生进一步的变化，其中一些变化可能会出乎意料。

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