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首页> 外文期刊>Marine ecology progress series >Estimating survival and abundance in a bottlenose dolphin population taking into account transience and temporary emigration
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Estimating survival and abundance in a bottlenose dolphin population taking into account transience and temporary emigration

机译：考虑到瞬态和临时移民，估计宽吻海豚种群的生存和丰度

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摘要

Knowledge of demographic parameters of most cetacean populations is scarce because of problems associated with sampling open populations of wide-ranging animals. In recent years, capture-recapture models have been developed to address these problems. We used a photo-identification dataset collected from a population of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus between 1999 and 2004 around 2 islands of the Azores archipelago, to demonstrate the use of some of these methods. A variety of open models and Pollock's robust design were applied to estimate population size, survival probability and emigration rates. Using only the estimates with the lowest coefficients of variation, the annual abundance of adult dolphins varied between 202 (95% CI: 148 to 277) and 334 (95% CI: 237 to 469), according to the Jolly-Seber method, and between 114 (95% CI: 85 to 152) and 288 (95% CI: 196 to 423), according to the robust design. The number of subadult individuals varied from 300 (95 % CI: 232 to 387) to 434 (95 % CI: 316 to 597) based on the Jolly-Seber method. The open models yielded estimates of adult survival (0.970 ± 0.029 SE) that were significantly higher than those for subadults (0.81.5 ± 0.083 SE). Movement patterns of dolphins in the Azores seem to follow a Mar-kovian model, in which dolphins seen in the study area in 1 yr show higher probability of emigrating in the following year. Despite some limitations, this is the first study to model transience and temporary emigration in a dolphin population.
机译：由于对大范围动物的开放种群进行采样存在相关的问题，因此大多数鲸类种群的人口统计知识很少。近年来，已经开发了捕获-捕获模型来解决这些问题。我们使用了从1999年至2004年之间的亚速尔群岛两个岛屿附近的宽吻海豚Tursiops truncatus种群收集的照片识别数据集，来证明其中一些方法的使用。各种开放模型和Pollock的稳健设计被用于估计人口规模，生存概率和移民率。根据Jolly-Seber方法，仅使用变异系数最低的估计值，成年海豚的年丰度在202（95％CI：148至277）和334（95％CI：237至469）之间变化，并且根据稳健的设计，它介于114（95％CI：85至152）和288（95％CI：196至423）之间。基于Jolly-Seber方法，亚成人个体的数量从300（95％CI：232至387）到434（95％CI：316至597）不等。开放模型得出的成年存活率估计值（0.970±0.029 SE）明显高于亚成人的估计值（0.81.5±0.083 SE）。亚速尔群岛中海豚的移动方式似乎遵循马尔可夫模型，其中在研究区中看到的海豚在1年内第二年迁移的可能性更高。尽管有一些限制，但这是首次对海豚种群的瞬态和临时移民建模的研究。

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  • 来源
    《Marine ecology progress series》 |2009年第392期|263-276|共14页
  • 作者

    Monica A. Silva; Sara Magalhaes; Rui Prieto; Ricardo Serrao Santos; Philip S. Hammond;

  • 作者单位

    Sea Mammal Research Unit, Gatty Marine Laboratory, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews KY16 8LB, Scotland, UK Departamento de Oceanografia e Pescas, Centro do Instituto do Mar (IMAR) da Universidade dos Ac, ores, and Associated Laboratory - Institute of Systems and Robotics (ISR), 9901-862 Horta, Portugal Biology Department, MS#33, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA;

    Departamento de Oceanografia e Pescas, Centro do Instituto do Mar (IMAR) da Universidade dos Ac, ores, and Associated Laboratory - Institute of Systems and Robotics (ISR), 9901-862 Horta, Portugal;

    Departamento de Oceanografia e Pescas, Centro do Instituto do Mar (IMAR) da Universidade dos Ac, ores, and Associated Laboratory - Institute of Systems and Robotics (ISR), 9901-862 Horta, Portugal;

    Departamento de Oceanografia e Pescas, Centro do Instituto do Mar (IMAR) da Universidade dos Ac, ores, and Associated Laboratory - Institute of Systems and Robotics (ISR), 9901-862 Horta, Portugal;

    Sea Mammal Research Unit, Gatty Marine Laboratory, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews KY16 8LB, Scotland, UK;

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  • 关键词

    pollock's robust design; open models; abundance; survival; transience; temporary emigration; capture-recapture data; bottlenose dolphins;

    机译：波洛克的坚固设计;开放模型;丰富;生存瞬变临时移民;捕获-捕获数据;宽吻海豚;

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