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Variability in transport of fish eggs and larvae. I. Modelling the effects of coastal reclamation

机译：鱼卵和幼虫运输中的变异性。一，模拟沿海填海的影响

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摘要

Dispersal of eggs and larvae of herring, plaice and sole in the southern North Sea was studied by modelling using real-time hydrodynamic forcing (with wind, air pressure and river discharge) and species-specific knowledge of larval behaviour (incorporating salinity triggers), temperature-dependent growth and spawning characteristics. Larval transport was simulated using a finite-volume advection-diffusion model (Delft3D-WAQ) coupled to a 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model (Delft3D-FLOW). Model parameter settings were refined following a sensitivity analysis. Validation of modelled hydrodynamics and larval distribution patterns showed broad agreement with field data. Differences in model results for larval distribution, transport success and timing of arrival at nursery grounds between baseline conditions and a scenario that incorporated a proposed 1000 ha coastal reclamation (protruding 6 to 7 km from the Dutch coastline) for the expansion of the Port of Rotterdam (Maasvlakte-2) were insignificant in comparison to the interannual variability in larval dispersal for these species. Results suggest that effects of the proposed coastal reclamation on the transport success of fish larvae (flatfish and herring), an issue over which public stakeholders had expressed concern, will be negligible.
机译：通过使用实时水动力强迫（带有风，气压和河水排放）和特定物种的幼虫行为知识（包括盐分触发因素）进行建模，研究了北海南部的鲱鱼，和的卵和幼虫的扩散，温度依赖性生长和产卵特性。使用有限体积对流扩散模型（Delft3D-WAQ）和3维流体动力学模型（Delft3D-FLOW）耦合模拟幼虫的运输。在进行敏感性分析后，对模型参数设置进行了完善。建模流体动力学和幼虫分布模式的验证表明与现场数据具有广泛的一致性。基线条件与为扩展鹿特丹港而拟议的1000公顷沿海填海工程（距荷兰海岸线6至7公里）的拟议方案之间的幼体分布，运输成功和到达苗圃场的时间的模型结果差异（Maasvlakte-2）与这些物种的幼虫传播年际变化相比微不足道。结果表明，拟议的沿海开垦对鱼幼体（比目鱼和鲱鱼）运输成功的影响将是微不足道的，公众利益相关者对此表示了担忧。

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