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A simplified method for reliability- and integrity-based design of engineering systems and its application to offshore mooring systems

机译：工程系统基于可靠性和完整性的简化设计方法及其在海上系泊系统中的应用

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This paper presents a simplified method for the reliability- and the integrity-based optimal design of engineering systems and its application to offshore mooring systems. The design of structural systems is transitioning from the conventional methods, which are based on factors of safety, to more advanced methods, which require calculation of the failure probability of the designed system for each project. Using factors of safety to account for the uncertainties in the capacity (strength) or demands can lead to systems with different reliabilities. This is because the number and arrangement of components in each system and the correlation of their responses could be different, which could affect the system reliability. The generic factors of safety that are specified at the component level do not account for such differences. Still, using factors of safety, as a measure of system safety, is preferred by many engineers because of the simplicity in their application. The aim of this paper is to provide a simplified method for design of engineering systems that directly involves the system annual failure probability as a measure of system safety, concerning system strength limit state. In this method, using results of conventional deterministic analysis, the optimality factors for an integrity-based optimal design are used instead of generic safety factors to assure the system safety. The optimality factors, which estimate the necessary change in average component capacities, are computed especially for each component and a target system annual probability of system failure using regression models that estimate the effect of short and long term extreme events on structural response. Because in practice, it is convenient to use the return period as a measure to quantify the likelihood of extreme events, the regression model in this paper is a relationship between the component demands and the annual probability density function corresponding to every return period. This method accounts for the uncertainties in the environmental loads and structural capacities, and identifies the target mean capacity of each component for maximizing its integrity and meeting the reliability requirement. In addition, because various failure modes in a structural system can lead to different consequences (including damage costs), a method is introduced to compute optimality factors for designated failure modes. By calculating the probability of system failure, this method can be used for risk-based decision-making that considers the failure costs and consequences. The proposed method can also be used on existing structures to identify the riskiest components as part of inspection and improvement planning. The proposed method is discussed and illustrated considering offshore mooring systems. However, the method is general and applicable also to other engineering systems. In the case study of this paper, the method is first used to quantify the reliability of a mooring system, then this design is revised to meet the DNV recommended annual probability of failure and for maximizing system integrity as well as for a designated failure mode in which the anchor chains are the first components to fail in the system.
机译：本文提出了一种基于可靠性和完整性的工程系统优化设计的简化方法，并将其应用于海上系泊系统。结构系统的设计正在从基于安全因素的常规方法过渡到更高级的方法，这些方法需要为每个项目计算设计系统的失效概率。使用安全因素来说明容量（强度）或需求的不确定性可能会导致系统具有不同的可靠性。这是因为每个系统中组件的数量和布置以及它们的响应的相关性可能不同，这可能会影响系统的可靠性。在组件级别指定的通用安全因素不能解决这些差异。但是，由于安全性高，因此应用程序简单，因此许多工程师还是首选使用安全性作为系统安全性的度量标准。本文的目的是提供一种简化的工程系统设计方法，该方法直接涉及系统年度故障概率作为系统安全性的度量，涉及系统强度极限状态。在这种方法中，使用常规确定性分析的结果，使用基于完整性的最佳设计的最优因素代替一般安全因素，以确保系统安全。使用回归模型（估计短期和长期极端事件对结构响应的影响），特别是针对每个组件和目标系统年度系统故障概率，计算出估计平均组件容量必要变化的最佳因子。因为在实践中，使用返回期作为量化极端事件可能性的方法很方便，所以本文中的回归模型是组件需求与对应于每个返回期的年概率密度函数之间的关系。该方法考虑了环境载荷和结构容量的不确定性，并确定了每个组件的目标平均容量，以最大程度地提高其完整性并满足可靠性要求。此外，由于结构系统中的各种失效模式可能导致不同的后果（包括破坏成本），因此引入了一种方法来计算指定失效模式的最优因子。通过计算系统故障的可能性，该方法可用于考虑故障成本和后果的基于风险的决策。提议的方法还可以用于现有结构，以识别风险最高的组件，作为检查和改进计划的一部分。考虑到海上系泊系统，对所提出的方法进行了讨论和说明。但是，该方法是通用的，并且也适用于其他工程系统。在本文的案例研究中，该方法首先用于量化系泊系统的可靠性，然后对该设计进行修改，以满足DNV建议的年度故障概率，并最大程度地提高系统完整性以及指定的故障模式。锚链是系统中第一个失败的组件。

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