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A Novel Method for Risk Assessment of Cable Fires in Utility Tunnel

机译：公用事业隧道电缆火灾风险评估的一种新方法

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摘要

Given the flammability of power cables and the high cost of utility tunnel construction, power cable fires cause serious economic losses and are associated with a negative social impact. In the study, a weighted fuzzy Petri net and an event tree are combined to propose a quantitative evaluation method to mitigate cable fire risks in a utility tunnel. First, cable fire risk factors are analyzed. Given the lack of utility tunnel cable fire historical data, fuzzy theory is used to calculate the failure probability of the primary event. Second, a weighted fuzzy Petri net is used for fuzzy reasoning, and an event tree is used to analyze all possible consequences. Subsequently, the numerical simulation method is used to quantify the loss from the cable fire and thereby quantify the risk of cable fire. Finally, the effect of different risk factors on a cable fire is analyzed to determine the main factors that affect cable fires. Simultaneously, the control ability of different control measures with respect to the fire is analyzed to determine key control measures. A case study of a utility tunnel cable cabin in Liupanshui in Guizhou is employed to validate the utility of the proposed method.
机译：鉴于电力电缆的易燃性和公用事业隧道施工的高成本，电力电缆火灾导致严重的经济损失，与负面的社会影响有关。在该研究中，将加权模糊Petri网和事件树组合起来提出定量评估方法，以减轻公用事业隧道中的电缆火灾风险。首先，分析了有线电视风险因素。鉴于缺乏公用事业隧道电缆火灾历史数据，模糊理论用于计算主要事件的失败概率。其次，加权模糊Petri网用于模糊推理，并且使用事件树来分析所有可能的后果。随后，数值模拟方法用于量化电缆火灾的损耗，从而量化电缆火灾的风险。最后，分析了不同风险因素对电缆火灾的影响，以确定影响电缆火灾的主要因素。同时，分析了不同控制措施相对于火灾的控制能力，以确定关键控制措施。采用贵州六山水电缆舱的案例研究，验证了该方法的效用。

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  • 来源
    《Mathematical Problems in Engineering》 |2019年第22期|2563012.1-2563012.14|共14页
  • 作者

    He Leping; Ma Guoli; Hu Qijun; Cai Qijie; Bai Yu; Tang Shuang; Tan Jie;

  • 作者单位

    Southwest Petr Univ Sch Civil Engn & Architecture Chengdu 610500 Sichuan Peoples R China;

    Southwest Petr Univ Sch Civil Engn & Architecture Chengdu 610500 Sichuan Peoples R China;

    Southwest Petr Univ Sch Civil Engn & Architecture Chengdu 610500 Sichuan Peoples R China;

    Southwest Jiaotong Univ Sch Transportat & Logist Chengdu 610031 Sichuan Peoples R China;

    Southwest Petr Univ Sch Civil Engn & Architecture Chengdu 610500 Sichuan Peoples R China;

    Southwest Petr Univ Sch Civil Engn & Architecture Chengdu 610500 Sichuan Peoples R China;

    Southwest Petr Univ Sch Civil Engn & Architecture Chengdu 610500 Sichuan Peoples R China;

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