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Reliability Analysis for Bypass Seepage Stability of Complex Reinforced Earth-Rockfill Dam with High-Order Practical Stochastic Response Surface Method

机译：高阶实用随机响应面法旁路渗流渗透稳定性的可靠性分析

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Practical stochastic response surface method (SRSM) using ordinary high-order polynomials with mixed terms to approximate the true limit state function (LSF) is proposed to analyze the reliability of bypass seepage stability of earth-rockfill dam. Firstly, the orders of random variable are determined with a univariate fitting. Secondly, nonessential variables are excluded to identify possible mixed terms. Thirdly, orthogonal table is used to arrange additional samples, and stepwise regression is conducted to achieve a specific high-order response surface polynomial (RSP). Fourthly, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is used to calculate the failure probability, and RSP is updated by arranging several additional samplings around the design point. At last, the Bantou complex reinforced earth-rockfill dam was taken as an example. There are 6 random variables, that is, the upper water level and 5 hydraulic conductivities (HCs). The result shows that a third-order RSP can ensure good precision, and the failure probability of bypass seepage stability is 3.680x10-5 within an acceptable risk range. The HC of concrete cut-off wall and the HC of rockfill are unimportant random variables. Maximum failure probability at the bank slope has positive correlation with the HC of curtain and the upper water level, negative correlation with the HC of alluvial deposits, and less significance with the HC of filled soil. With the increase of coefficient of variation (Cov) of the HC of curtain, the bypass seepage failure probability increases dramatically. Practical SRSM adopts a nonintrusive form. The reliability analysis and the bypass seepage analysis were conducted separately; therefore, it has a high computational efficiency. Compared with the existing SRSM, the RSP of practical SRSM is simpler and the procedure of the reliability analysis is easier. This paper provides a further evidence for readily application of the high-order practical SRSM to engineering.
机译：采用具有混合术语的普通高阶多项式的实用随机响应表面方法（SRSM）提出了近似真极限状态功能（LSF），以分析地球摇滚坝旁路渗流稳定性的可靠性。首先，用单变量拟合确定随机变量的顺序。其次，不包括非源变量以识别可能的混合术语。第三，正交表用于排列额外的样本，并进行逐步回归以实现特定的高阶响应表面多项式（RSP）。第四，Monte Carlo仿真（MCS）用于计算故障概率，并且通过在设计点周围安排几个附加采样来更新RSP。最后，Bantou复杂的钢筋地球堆石坝是作为一个例子。有6个随机变量，即上水位和5个液压导电性（HCS）。结果表明，三阶RSP可以确保良好的精度，并且在可接受的风险范围内旁路渗漏稳定性的故障概率为3.680x10-5。混凝土截止墙的HC和Rockfill的HC是不重要的随机变量。银行斜率的最大失效概率与帘子的HC和上水位的阳性相关性，与填充土壤的HC的阴性沉积物的负相关性，与填充土壤的HC的显着性。随着窗帘HC的变异系数（COV）的增加，旁路渗流失效概率急剧增加。实用的SRSM采用一个非目的形式。可靠性分析和旁路渗漏分析分别进行;因此，它具有高的计算效率。与现有的SRSM相比，实际SRSM的RSP更简单，可靠性分析的程序更容易。本文提供了进一步的证据，即易于应用高阶实际SRSM到工程。

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  • 来源
    《Mathematical Problems in Engineering》 |2019年第22期|8261961.1-8261961.15|共15页
  • 作者

    He Jinwen; Zhang Ping; Li Xiaona;

  • 作者单位

    China Three Gorges Univ Hubei Key Lab Disaster Prevent & Mitigat Yichang 443002 Hubei Peoples R China|China Three Gorges Univ Coll Hydraul & Environm Engn Yichang 443002 Hubei Peoples R China|Minist Water Resources Yangtze River Sci Res Inst Res Ctr Water Engn Safety & Disaster Prevent Wuhan 430010 Hubei Peoples R China;

    China Three Gorges Univ Coll Hydraul & Environm Engn Yichang 443002 Hubei Peoples R China;

    Xian Univ Technol Sch Water Resources & Hydroelect Engn Xian 710048 Shaanxi Peoples R China;

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