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Research on the Concentration Prediction of Nitrogen in Red Tide Based on an Optimal Grey Verhulst Model

机译：基于最优灰色Verhulst模型的赤潮中氮浓度预测研究

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摘要

In order to reduce the harm of red tide to marine ecological balance, marine fisheries, aquatic resources, and human health, an optimal Grey Verhulst model is proposed to predict the concentration of nitrogen in seawater, which is the key factor in red tide. The Grey Verhulst model is established according to the existing concentration data series of nitrogen in seawater, which is then optimized based on background value and time response formula to predict the future changes in the nitrogen concentration in seawater. Finally, the accuracy of the model is tested by the posterior test. The results show that the prediction value based on the optimal Grey Verhulst model is in good agreement with the measured nitrogen concentration in seawater, which proves the effectiveness of the optimal Grey Verhulst model in the forecast of red tide.
机译：为了减少赤潮对海洋生态平衡，海洋渔业，水生资源和人类健康的危害，提出了一种最优的灰色Verhulst模型来预测海水中的氮含量，这是赤潮的关键因素。根据现有的海水中氮浓度数据系列建立了灰色Verhulst模型，然后根据背景值和时间响应公式对其进行优化，以预测海水中氮浓度的未来变化。最后，通过后验检验模型的准确性。结果表明，基于最优灰色Verhulst模型的预测值与海水中测得的氮浓度吻合良好，证明了最优灰色Verhulst模型在赤潮预报中的有效性。

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  • 来源
    《Mathematical Problems in Engineering》 |2016年第9期|9786107.1-9786107.9|共9页
  • 作者

    Hu Xiaomei; Wang Yubin; Yu Yue; Wang Dong; Tian Yuan;

  • 作者单位

    Shanghai Univ, Key Lab Intelligent Mfg & Robot, Sch Mechatron Engn & Automat, Mailbox 232,149 Yanchang Rd, Shanghai 200072, Peoples R China;

    Shanghai Univ, Key Lab Intelligent Mfg & Robot, Sch Mechatron Engn & Automat, Mailbox 232,149 Yanchang Rd, Shanghai 200072, Peoples R China;

    Shanghai Univ, Key Lab Intelligent Mfg & Robot, Sch Mechatron Engn & Automat, Mailbox 232,149 Yanchang Rd, Shanghai 200072, Peoples R China;

    Shanghai Univ, Key Lab Intelligent Mfg & Robot, Sch Mechatron Engn & Automat, Mailbox 232,149 Yanchang Rd, Shanghai 200072, Peoples R China;

    Univ Michigan, Coll Engn, Dept Mech Engn, Ann Arbor, MI 48105 USA;

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