Short-Term City Electric Load Forecasting with Considering Temperature Effects: An Improved ARIMAX Model

Cui Herui; Peng Xu

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Short-Term City Electric Load Forecasting with Considering Temperature Effects: An Improved ARIMAX Model

机译：考虑温度影响的短期城市电力负荷预测：改进的ARIMAX模型

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Short-term electric load is significantly affected by weather, especially the temperature effects in summer. External factors can result in mutation structures in load data. Under the influence of the external temperature factors, city electric load cannot be easily forecasted as usual. This research analyzes the relationship between electricity load and daily temperature in city. An improved ARIMAX model is proposed in this paper to deal with the mutation data structures. It is found that information amount of the improved ARIMAX model is smaller than that of the classic method and its relative error is less than AR, ARMA and Sigmoid-Function ANN models. The forecasting results are more accurately fitted. This improved model is highly valuable when dealing with mutation data structure in the field of load forecasting. And it is also an effective technique in forecasting electric load with temperature effects.

机译：短期电力负荷会受到天气的显着影响，尤其是夏季的温度影响。外部因素会导致负荷数据中的突变结构。在外部温度因素的影响下，无法像往常一样容易地预测城市电力负荷。本研究分析了城市用电负荷与日温度之间的关系。提出了一种改进的ARIMAX模型来处理突变数据结构。结果表明，改进后的ARIMAX模型的信息量小于经典方法，其相对误差小于AR，ARMA和Sigmoid-Function ANN模型。预测结果更加准确。这种改进的模型在处理负荷预测领域的变异数据结构时非常有价值。并且它也是一种有效的预测具有温度效应的电力负荷的技术。

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《Mathematical Problems in Engineering》 |2015年第12期|589374.1-589374.10|共10页
作者
Cui Herui; Peng Xu;
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North China Elect Power Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Baoding 071003, Peoples R China;

North China Elect Power Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Baoding 071003, Peoples R China;

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机译：考虑温度效应的短期城市电负荷预测：改进的ARIMAX模型

Short-Term City Electric Load Forecasting with Considering Temperature Effects: An Improved ARIMAX Model

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