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Analysis and Forecast of Global Civil Aviation Accidents for the Period 1942-2016

机译：1942 - 2016年全球民航事故的分析与预测

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With the increase of global civil aviation transportation, more and more researchers pay attention to the analysis of civil aviation accidents. Time series analysis can obtain the variation law in a large amount of data, and there is no research result of aviation accident time series yet. Based on the Mann-Kendall trend analysis and mutation analysis methods, this paper studied the change trend of accidents and casualties in different flight stages of civil aviation and built ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model) time series analysis model to predict the number of civil aviation accidents and casualties by the long-term data in the world. (1) The number of civil aviation accidents fluctuates generally in the world; from 1942 to 2016, there were two fluctuation periods of civil aviation accidents. (2) The number of global civil aviation casualties from 1942 to 2016 showed a parabola trend of increasing first and then decreasing. The highest number of casualties appeared in 1972, which was 2373; on the different flight stages, the number of accidents was different. In the air route and approach phase, the number of accidents was the most, and the number of casualties was more than other flight phases, accounting for about 50% of the whole flight phase. (3) In addition to the land phase, the number of accidents showed a significant decrease in other flight phases; while the air route and total number of casualties decreased significantly, the number of casualties at other flight phases did not decrease significantly. There were no sudden changes in the number of global civil aviation accidents and approach casualties. (4) The sudden change point of the global civil aviation casualties was 2013, the sudden change point of the air route stage accidents was 1980, the sudden change point of approach stage accidents was 2012, and the sudden change point of air route stage casualties was 2006. According to the ARIMA (1,0,1) model, the numbers of global civil aviation accidents and casualties were predicted to 2025. Through time series research, we have explored the variation law in the historical data of long-term aviation accidents and predicted the possible changes of future aviation accidents, providing data reference for aviation safety research.
机译：随着全球民用航空运输的增加，越来越多的研究人员关注民航事故的分析。时间序列分析可以在大量数据中获得变异法，但尚未存在航空事故时间序列的研究结果。基于Mann-Kendall趋势分析和突变分析方法，研究了民航不同飞行阶段的事故和伤亡的变化趋势，并建立了Arima（自回归综合移动平均模型）时间序列分析模型，以预测民用的数量航空事故和世界长期数据的伤亡。 （1）民用航空事故的数量一般在世界上波动;从1942年到2016年，有两个民航事故的波动期。 （2）1942年至2016年的全球民用航空伤亡人数显示抛物线趋势先进，然后减少。 1972年出现的最多伤亡人数为2373;在不同的飞行阶段，事故的数量不同。在空中路线和接近阶段，事故的数量最多，伤亡人数不仅仅是其他飞行阶段，占整个飞行阶段的50％。 （3）除土地阶段外，事故的人数表现出其他飞行阶段的显着降低;虽然航线和伤亡总数显着下降，但其他飞行阶段的伤亡人数没有显着降低。全球民用航空事故和方法伤亡人数没有突然变化。 （4）全球民用航空伤亡的突然变化点是2013年，航空路线舞台事故的突然变化点是1980年，突然改变的方法发生阶段事故是2012年，而突然改变空中航线舞台伤亡根据Arima（1,0,1）模型，预计全球民用航空事故和伤亡人数为2025年。通过时间序列研究，我们探讨了长期航空数据的历史数据中的变体法事故并预测未来航空事故可能的变化，为航空安全研究提供数据参考。

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  • 来源
    《Mathematical Problems in Engineering》 |2019年第4期|5710984.1-5710984.12|共12页
  • 作者

    Li Yafei;

  • 作者单位

    Civil Aviat Univ China Tianjin Key Lab Air Traff Operat Planning & Safet Tianjin 300300 Peoples R China;

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